SAN DIEGO—Home pricing is slowing again in the metro area, with three consecutive months of month-over-month decreases in average home prices ending in September, RealtyTrac's VP Daren Blomquist tells GlobeSt.com. The firm reports that the San Diego housing market is not out of steam yet, but could experience some softening in the foreseeable future. We spoke with Blomquist about what he sees happening in San Diego's housing market, and whether the ups and downs are cause for concern.
GlobeSt.com: Two years ago, the San Diego housing market hit a soft patch, and now we're seeing a three-month trend of home pricing softening in the region. Do you anticipate more "soft patches" to hit the San Diego housing market in the future?
Blomquist: Yes. San Diego, just like many other housing markets across the country, is a cyclical market that tends to have years of feast and famine. Home-price appreciation is slowing again in the metro area, with three consecutive months of month-over-month decreases in average home prices ending in September.
GlobeSt.com: How do you see this market progressing as we move further into the current cycle?
Blomquist: The writing is on the wall for a downturn in the San Diego market; it's just difficult to determine when that will come. But with the three consecutive months of year-over-year decreases, it does appear it may be as soon as early next year if that trend continues. Additionally, we do expect interest rates to eventually rise, which will have an additional chilling effect on a high-priced housing market like San Diego.
GlobeSt.com: How do you view the overall health of the San Diego housing market as compared to other Southern California markets?
Blomquist: We're seeing similar monthly price decreases for the last few months in other coastal California markets, and so those markets also have the same weakness as San Diego: housing prices that are reaching an affordability ceiling even as the threat of rising interest rates could tip the affordability scales enough to cause a dip in home prices. San Diego at this point probably has the least diverse and robust economy of any of the coastal California markets, and it does not seem to be attracting as much interest from foreign buyers. Because of those factors is probably the weakest of the coastal markets. Inland markets are showing some similar price weakness in the last few months, but because the price point there is lower, they likely have a longer runway before any possibility of a downturn.
GlobeSt.com: What else should our readers know about this market?
Blomquist: Over the long term San Diego is a solid housing market, but buyers and investors should proceed with caution right now given some of the cracks forming—especially if they have a shorter-term horizon of less than five years with their buying or investing strategy.
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