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ATLANTA—Hot'Lanta? Indeed. The MSA is hot with the activity of major corporations attracted by the youthful population and the availability of space for reasonable rents. So says Steve Harriss, the area's director of analytics for GlobeSt.com Thought Leader Xceligent.

"The office market headline for Atlanta would be, 'Rents Climb as Vacancy Drops due to Class A Demand,' " says Harriss, who provides the numbers to support the headline. "Rent growth is expected to accelerate through the rest of 2015, especially in high-performing submarkets," he tells GlobeSt.com. These submarkets would include the Central Perimeter, Buckhead and Midtown.

"Weighted average full-service asking rents for all classes rose 5.8%, compared to Q3 2014," he continues, putting rents at $21.62 per foot at the close of Q3. And class A asking rents took a 6.8% jump over the same period, coming in at $24.50.

As the trend continues, "it's going to become a landlords market again," he says, "and that will bring us to equilibrium," which Harriss tags at about 14%. The current vacancy rate of 18.5% overall is dropping in the midst of increasing leasing activity.

And who is making all of this leasing noise? Harriss says there is no one sector emerges as a primary driver, and tech firms and more traditional occupiers alike—such as accounting and law firms—are all signing on. They're all being drawn to the proximity of the international airport; the lower cost of living; and, probably most important, the youthful workforce, being fed by the nearby presence of both Georgia Tech and the University of Georgia. "That's a big edge we have over a lot of other markets," he says.

In fact, according to Xceligent's Q3 Atlanta market report, the MSA "recorded 681,101 square feet of positive absorption during the third quarter and 1.9 million square feet for the year. Major occupiers included SAP America, FiServ, Rent Path and Mercedes Benz."

That last tenant is key to the overall picture, says Harris, explaining that the lease was for temp space as the formerly New Jersey-based car manufacturer preps its new US headquarters, set for completion sometime next year. State Farm as well is constructing its own regional headquarters, adding to an already full pipeline of product, as the Q3 report underscores:

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So far this year, "Office construction completions totaled 753,000 square feet, of which two were build-to-suits for Porsche and Comcast. Build-to-suits are leading the demand in office construction as tenants shift to the urban core. Tenants including Mercedes Benz, NCR, Lincoln National Life, Synovus, Delta Community Credit Union and Comcast are a few major tenants that have signed leases in buildings ready to start construction late in 2015 or early 2016. Currently, there are 11 buildings totaling 1.9 million square feet under construction." Spec is showing some activity, but not enough, says Harriss to seriously outpace demand.

If there is a concern in this rosy picture, it's the cost of construction, says the Xceligent director. Virtually all of these spaces are offering, or will offer, space for other tenants.

"We're seeing new class A construction costs so high that rents there need to be in the mid 30s to low 40s to justify the cost of the build," he says. "The big national firms can justify that, but some of the local firms can't. So the big question is at what point rents will be too high for tenants to lease."

And that will bear watching as this new product comes online. For the near term, however, Harriss is bullish. "The only thing that can slow Atlanta down will be the global economy, which is true of every market. I feel really good about where the office market is going."

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John Salustri

John Salustri has covered the commercial real estate industry for nearly 25 years. He was the founding editor of GlobeSt.com, and is a four-time recipient of the Excellence in Journalism award from the National Association of Real Estate Editors.