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SAN BERNARDINO, CA—We started last week's second installment in this mini-series on SoCal industrial with a guide for the geographically challenged, so let's pick up the trail where we left off.

The Inland Empire is a market comprised of two counties in Southern California—Riverside and San Bernardino—and more than 50 cities. Directly east of Los Angeles County, IE both defines the eastern limits of Los Angeles' industrial growth potential and provides the basis it for its own expansion.

In terms of size, you'll find IE right in the middle—between the massive 816 million square feet of industrial space belonging to L.A. and the 61 million square feet found in Orange County to the south. The Inland Empire paces out to 491 million square feet and some 6,388 buildings larger than 10,000 square feet each.

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The primary market driver for IE industrial is distribution, according to Matt Nelson, regional director of GlobeSt.com Thought Leader Xceligent, with the likes of QVC, which he reports "just took down a million square feet." Likewise The Home Depot, which this past quarter signed on for a roughly equal amount of space, and electronics provider LG, which took 745,394 square feet. "The 50 deals done in the past quarter are all distribution," he states.

We mentioned at the top the growth potential for the market and the expansion east. As we stated in both the L.A. and Orange County reports, the tightness of the Inland Empire too is challenging investors and potential tenants alike to find suitable space. But there's an option to build, and over the past few years that's exactly what's been taking place.

"There's still land available, but developers are going farther and farther east," reports Tim Hayes, executive director of AIR, a commercial real estate association serving SoCal and an Xceligent data partner for the past 15 years. At one time, "Ontario was the farthest east—30 miles from downtown L.A. Now the market has grown way beyond that, reaching out to Rialto and San Bernardino, all around Route 215. The geography of the market is expanding as far as 70 miles from L.A."

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Even as they push east, the vacancy rate, while slightly higher than that of either L.A. or O.C., remains low—at 3.4% at the end of the third quarter of 2015, according to Xceligent's latest Market Report. Net absorption totaled 3.2 million square feet during the quarter and over 13.6 million square feet year-to-date.

And, as Nelson stated, The Home Depot, QVC and LG lead the charge. The top five deals for the quarter were:

  • The Home Depot's one-million-square-foot lease at the Stratford Ranch Business Park in Perris;
  • QVC, while larger, was a pre-lease for 1.05 million square feet at the Meredith International Centre in Ontario. The estimated completion date is a year from now;
  • LG took 745,394 square feet at 5565 Sierra Ave. in Fontana;
  • Distribution Alternatives signed for 615,566 square feet at 1979 W. Renaissance Pkwy. in Rialto; and
  • UTI Worldwide took 443,190 square feet at 8291 Milliken Ave. in Rancho Cucamonga.

And the long-term outlook seems to parallel the good news taking place in the other two SoCal industrial markets, according to Nelson. While the Inland Empire doesn't display the near-to bulletproof resilience of Orange County, "Unless there was some major financial crisis and some companies like Home Depot or Amazon really take a hit, you may see development slow down, but I don't think you'll see vacancy rates hit hard," he concludes.

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John Salustri

John Salustri has covered the commercial real estate industry for nearly 25 years. He was the founding editor of GlobeSt.com, and is a four-time recipient of the Excellence in Journalism award from the National Association of Real Estate Editors.