CHICAGO—An expanding economy will continue to drive up the use of cement in the US, but several factors, including the fall in oil prices, caused the rate of growth in 2015 to fall short of expectations, and should also act as a drag on growth for the next two years, according to a new report from the Portland Cement Association.

Based in Washington, DC, with offices in Skokie, IL, a suburb of Chicago, the PCA represents American cement companies. It conducts market development, engineering, research, education, and public affairs programs.

The association expects that the US cement market will record a 3.5% gain in 2015, followed by larger rates of growth in 2016 and 2017, 5% and 5.7%, respectively. At the end of last year, PCA found that cement use had grown 8.2% in 2014, and forecast that 2015 and 2016 would see similar rates of growth.

"A slowdown in cement intensity is a significant contributor to the revised forecast," says Edward J. Sullivan, chief economist and group vice president at PCA. Cement intensity refers to the tons of cement per dollar of construction activity. "The main indicators pointing to lower intensity levels are uneven regional construction activity, a slowdown in the number of starts, and the increase use of supplementary cementitious materials in concrete."

For example, throughout the year lower oil prices have reduced demand for new homes and businesses in the energy-dependent regions of Texas and North Dakota. As reported in GlobeSt.com, just two years ago the latter state's Bakken region was booming and most observers were forecasting endless expansion.

Still, Sullivan believes that the underlying economic fundamentals remain strong and points to the burgeoning labor market as proof. Monthly job gains have been quite healthy, averaging about 225,000 net new jobs, even as the official unemployment rate has sunk below 6%. That combination should result in increased consumer spending power, stronger state and local tax receipts, and stronger construction spending in 2016.