PHOENIX—"I am real bullish on the Phoenix metro area." That statement came from Michael Klein, co-founder, COO and managing director of Partners Capital Solutions Inc.
Klein was a speaker on the investment and capital placement panel at RealShare Phoenix Metro 2015 on Wednesday, an event which drew nearly 200 in attendance.
"Phoenix reminds me of Los Angeles when I was a kid in my 20s," Klein explained. "If you were living on the East Coast back then, you looked at Los Angeles as cheap and it had land to build on. Phoenix is the same. It is affordable and has land."
For the next two to five years, Klein was slightly wary about where the local CRE market would be, noting that the area will "likely get overbuilt." He added that everyone will be shocked and surprised when that happens. But then, he added, it will recover. "Twenty years from now, I think Phoenix will be a major player in the US."
According to Schwarz, the market does need to be a little careful about how much spec development is put up. "Developers should be careful. There is land here and when it is available, people will build. They start throwing product up and then all of the sudden…overbuilt."
Panelist Elliot Shirwo, EVP of Bolour Associates, said that there is a lot of upside potential in Phoenix. Most of the deals that Shirwo has done in Arizona have been in the retail sector. "We feel like through the downturn, there was some recalibration on values," he said. "We feel very comfortable lending here in Arizona."
On the retail front,Nick Miner, CCIM, VP of Orion Investment Real Estate, is "all sorts of excited" about the number of transactions he expects to happen next year. But Schwarz added that it is important to be especially careful when it comes to power center product.
Steven Schwarz, founding partner of ViaWest Group, says that there are "more and more new tenants coming to the market" and more hiring happening in Phoenix.
But Klein warned the audience that if you see banks charging into a market space, and when every banker you talk to wants to do multifamily or self-storage or whatever it is, then you should think twice about being there. But that isn't the case in Phoenix as of yet, according to Klein. "Right now in the Phoenix area, I am not getting super nervous."
At the end of the day, Shirwo says, "we are a price per pound lender. If we are good with the cost basis and have confidence in the sponsor executing his business plan, then we like that."
Shirwo expects a correction at some point "maybe in the next couple of years." It is something he said "is going to happen." Bur he encouraged attendees to "hoard cash and go shopping when that happens."
Schwarz agreed that on a national basis, Phoenix will be a few years behind on a correction. "We have a good runway ahead."
Orion's Miner agreed. "We aren't building, which is good. The stuff that is being built is for specific build-to-suit." In addition, he said, rents are affordable. "We have a lot of room to go. As long as we don't get as crazy as we did before, we will be fine."
Klein said it is a case of parallel rollercoasters. "Things aren't out of whack here, but rest assured that there is no exception for anyone… it is just about timing." Klein said that in looking at housing, which people can afford, retail rents, which shopkeepers can afford etc., the numbers work in Phoenix. Klein does worry about areas outside of Phoenix, in places like San Francisco where he says he "can't wrap his head around how someone can afford rents," are concerning.
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