SANTA BARBARA, CA—In keeping with normal seasonal patterns, US multifamily rent growth was basically flat in November, just as October was unchanged from the month before. However, Yardi's latest Matrix Monthly report, released Friday, also shows a near-term deceleration in the hottest markets as well as the effects of supply growth.

November's national average of 111 apartment markets covered by Yardi Matrix showed a $1 decline in rents to $1,165 per month. Rents increased by 6.4% year-over-year in November, representing a 30-basis-point decline from October but 190 bps higher than the year-ago period.

Also up on a Y-O-Y basis were rental markets in Portland, OR; San Francisco; Sacramento; Seattle; Atlanta; and Denver, according to Yardi. Looking at the trailing three-month numbers for many of these markets tells a different story, though.

In particular, on a T-3 basis Portland shifts from top of the heap to one of the worst performing markets for rent growth. Oregon's largest city leads on a Y-O-Y basis with 14.7% rent growth, but in the T-3 ranking it's among the underachievers with a decline of 0.4%. Denver, which ranks seventh on a Y-O-Y basis, also saw a 0.4% drop from the month before, while Seattle and San Francisco rents were down by 0.3%.

"The losses were a combination of seasonal and market factors, including the escalation of luxury-priced supply," according to Yardi's report. "Demand in these markets is likely to remain robust, which ensures that rent growth will pick up soon, but we expect that the outsize growth garnered in 2015 will begin to moderate."

Instead, Yardi sees near-term rent growth shifting to warmer climes. November's top six metro areas based on rent growth on a T-3 basis are in warm-weather climates: Miami, Phoenix, the Inland Empire, Tampa, Los Angeles and Orange County.

Such growth may be as seasonal as the flattening nationwide. A firmer basis for long-term rent growth is increases in employment, according to Yardi data.

The firms notes that metro areas at the high end of the rent growth spectrum are also seeing strong gains in employment, "not just in total but in high-wage jobs." That helps to distinguish metro areas such as San Francisco, which has seen 3.8% year-over-year job growth, Portland and Dallas (both with 3.4%) and Atlanta (3.1%).

"It also helps to explain some of the reason why markets such as Seattle and Denver can continue to produce above-trend rent increases despite multifamily supply growing at a higher rate than employment," according to Yardi. Austin, TX also enjoys above-trend rent growth even as supply growth outpaced jobs; less fortunate in this regard was the Research Triangle, where year-to-date rent growth was barely ahead of new supply.

T-3 rent growth for November fell 20 bps from the previous month and 40 bps from September. Pulling Y-O-Y T-3 rent growth down overall was a 0.2% decline in rents for higher-end Lifestyle properties, while working-class Rent By Necessity assets rose by 0.2%.

In all, 18 of the top 30 metro areas surveyed saw negative growth in Lifestyle rents. Twelve of those metros experienced negative growth of 0.5% or more, led by Jacksonville (-1.3%), Chicago (-1.2%) and Baltimore (-1.1%).

"Most new supply coming online is in the Lifestyle category," according to Yardi's report. "The competition is forcing landlords to lower rents or offer concessions to attract the limited number of tenants that can afford high-end prices."