PHOENIX—The Metro Phoenix retail market posted its 16th consecutive quarter of declining vacancy. The vacancy rate declined to 11.1% at the end of the third quarter with neighborhood and community centers drawing the most leasing activity, according to Cushman & Wakefield.

Metro Phoenix recorded nearly 552,000 square feet of occupancy growth during the quarter, bringing the year-to-date total to 984,000 square feet. The Chandler/Gilbert, Scottsdale, Central Phoenix and Northwest Phoenix submarkets accounted for 83% of the total net absorption for the quarter. All but two of the city's retail submarkets posted positive net absorption during the three-month timeframe.

Brent Mallonee, vice president of Cushman & Wakefield in Phoenix, tells GlobeSt.com: "The most notable trend in the Metro Phoenix retail market is one we have not experienced in past cycles. Developers are scooping up older retail properties and commercial buildings to renovate for newer retail purposes. These trend-setting spaces are located in both the Central Business District and the suburbs. The modernized projects attract great restaurant concepts, as well as a variety of regional and national retailers."

Neighborhood and community centers are occupied largely by smaller retailers, which were hit hardest by the recession. The majority of Phoenix's retail net absorption is taking place in these centers as small business owners and regional retailers see a resurgence.

"A huge part of our new occupancy is coming in the form of restaurants," Mallonee says. "Economic recovery has brought more disposable income and people are dining out far more often. Metro Phoenix is booming with new restaurant concepts, both locally created and brought here from out-of-state."

Many of these new restaurant concepts and retailers are selecting redevelopment properties. "The term 'infill' is being used in this market to describe the redevelopment and repositioning of commercial projects," Mallonee said. "This phenomenon is taking place not only in the Central Business District, but also in the suburbs. Often redesigned with a trendy, urban appeal, these properties attract consumers of all ages, especially the young adult market."

Strip centers have struggled through the recession and continue to fight for more occupancy. The third quarter brought notable declines in this sector, with vacancy dropping from 17.4% at mid-year to 16.3% three months later. Power centers and regional malls held a stable 5.6% vacancy for the past two quarters.

Rental rates for Metro Phoenix retail space are rising as the vacancy falls. Average asking rent at the end of third quarter 2015 was $14.21 per square foot (on an annual triple net basis.) This marks a $0.33 per square foot increase for the quarter. Neighborhood and community centers, as well as strip centers, all experienced gains in rates. However, power centers, regional malls and specialty centers experienced small decreases in average rental rates during the quarter.

"Tenants are no longer making decisions based primarily on price," said Mallonee. "They are paying higher rents for the best location. Included in that equation are the visibility of the center and space, access to transportation corridors and demographics of the surrounding consumer market. Regional malls hold a healthy vacancy level, but their success varies greatly by location and age. Newer centers like Chandler Fashion Center and Scottsdale Fashion Square are in high demand, with space leasing as soon as it is vacated or built. Aging properties in less appealing demographic markets like Metrocenter and Paradise Valley Mall are drawing non-traditional users for large blocks of space. In addition, our regional malls have seen a decline in sales per square foot over the past couple of years. This decrease is being attributed to the recent influx of outlet malls and ecommerce that have pulled shoppers away."

Investment activity is strong in the retail sector with investors seeking Metro Phoenix assets that currently have very low cap rates. Construction of new retail space is increasing. Year-to-date, approximately 394,000 square feet of new retail space has been completed, which is the equivalent of 86% of the total for all of 2014. Scottsdale Fashion Square has the largest construction underway with a 142,000-square-foot expansion that is fully preleased.

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Lisa Brown

Lisa Brown is an editor for the south and west regions of GlobeSt.com. She has 25-plus years of real estate experience, with a regional PR role at Grubb & Ellis and a national communications position at MMI. Brown also spent 10 years as executive director at NAIOP San Francisco Bay Area chapter, where she led the organization to achieving its first national award honors and recognition on Capitol Hill. She has written extensively on commercial real estate topics and edited numerous pieces on the subject.