NEWPORT BEACH, CA—At first glance, Green Street Advisors' latest report looks like still another in a series.  The Newport Beach, CA-based firm said Friday that its Green Street Commercial Property Price Index increased by 2% in November, and that this means property prices are up 10% for the year, thereby matching the gains that occurred in 2014.

However, the commentary from Peter Rothemund, senior analyst with Green Street, provides a hint that the status quo won't hold forever. "Cap rates have been holding firm, and in some instances, even moving lower as investor demand for commercial property remains strong," he says. "The question is whether that trend will continue. Cap rates look low when they're compared to corporate bond yields. Said another way, properties look expensive. If this isn't the peak, we're probably close."

Similarly, Cornerstone Real Estate Advisers' just-published US Research Quarterly sees a change in the air. "Recent capital market dynamics—with Baa corporate bond yields moving up to 5.3% (as of 11/23/15) and the FTSE/NAREIT Equity REIT price index falling 6% in August before recovering but flat over the past quarter—are consistent with some slowing in the rate of property price appreciation going forward," according to the report from the Hartford, CT-based investment adviser. "It is our view that double-digit returns on core property are in the process of moderating to high single digits and that property appreciation is more about leasing/rent growth dynamics than capital market forces."

When the market begins to make the shift to real estate values being driven more by earnings, "it is often the case that cap rate to Baa spread shrinks because more of the internal rate of return (IRR) comes from earnings that are expected to increase," the report states. Conversely, a corporate bond income is fixed, and therefore bond investors build in a higher interest rate risk premium with a steepening yields curve.

Although NCREIF Property Index returns are expected to moderate, with quarterly returns trending downward over the past three quarters, "real estate is expected to continue to deliver solid returns," according to Cornerstone. "The combined impact of 'lower for longer' long-term government bond yields globally on capital flows along with solid and improving leasing fundamentals provides strong support for additional but moderated returns over the next few years."

Expectations for commercial real estate's solid track record to continue are buttressed by the sector's recent results. "While investor angst over global growth concerns and the timing of Federal Reserve tightening have fueled heightened volatility in public markets, real estate has maintained its strong performance," according to Cornerstone.

The NCREIF index showed total returns of 3.09% in the third quarter, with industrial, hotel and retail all outperforming the overall index, while office and apartment slightly underperformed. "With year-to-date returns above 10%, 2015 will be the sixth consecutive year of double-digit NPI returns."

Additionally, Real Capital Analytics has reported Q3 sales volume of $115 billion. Although that represents only a 3% gain over the year prior, year-to-date volume is up 25% from last year. Moreover, offering further evidence that overseas investors see US real estate as a safe haven, cross-border capital accounted for 14% percent of transactions in Q3; Cornerstone notes that this share has increased over the past three quarters.