PHOENIX—"When you start comparing seniors housing to other property types, it becomes clear that it lacks the transparency that other property types have." That is according to Chuck Harry, managing director and director of research at NIC.
Harry joined other panelists at the recent RealShare National Healthcare Real Estate 2015 conference, where he explained that that one positive thing in the sector is the adult children awareness of seniors housing, which he says has increased. "They look at the communities as an enriching place to live now… Many folks have difficulty facing their aging and raising acuity levels that go with that."
According to NIC's forecasts, over the next year, a balanced market in terms of both demand as measured by absorption and the amount of new inventory coming online in those four quarters is anticipated. "The market never really recovered from its prior peak," he said. "Today's resident is significantly older when they move so their average length of tenure is lower."
He pointed out that today's typical resident was born in the 1930s. "The boomers had been trailblazers and are much more demanding. They expect to be served," he said. "The silent generation is much more appreciative of what they are given."
He also added that "The vast majority of senior housing residents are women. It was within the boomer generation that women entered the workforce in full force. There is a good chance that we as a boomer generation will be more accepting of communal living."
And there is a lot more construction activity in the assisted living arena, added Harry. "In terms of our forecast, we expect a very balanced supply/demand factor." And while independent living isn't seeing as much construction activity, he says it is seeing a healthy supply and demand balance.
Stephanie Anderson, principal and co-founder of SilverStone Health Care Real Estate, said that there is also a big cultural difference in assisted living and memory care space. "Places like Boston, they might not mind elevators, and they are used to staying in nice hotels. But if you take that same property and place it in Denver, it won't have the same acceptance," she said. "What we look at a lot is the penetration rate and then you look at how many of those reside in a seniors housing community," she said. "Even if we just maintained the penetration rate, we don't have enough houses for everyone."
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Natalie Dolce
Natalie Dolce, editor-in-chief of GlobeSt.com and GlobeSt. Real Estate Forum, is responsible for working with editorial staff, freelancers and senior management to help plan the overarching vision that encompasses GlobeSt.com, including short-term and long-term goals for the website, how content integrates through the company’s other product lines and the overall quality of content. Previously she served as national executive editor and editor of the West Coast region for GlobeSt.com and Real Estate Forum, and was responsible for coverage of news and information pertaining to that vital real estate region. Prior to moving out to the Southern California office, she was Northeast bureau chief, covering New York City for GlobeSt.com. Her background includes a stint at InStyle Magazine, and as managing editor with New York Press, an alternative weekly New York City paper. In her career, she has also covered a variety of beats for M magazine, Arthur Frommer's Budget Travel, FashionLedge.com, and Co-Ed magazine. Dolce has also freelanced for a number of publications, including MSNBC.com and Museums New York magazine.
