NEW YORK CITY—It's no longer news that the Federal Reserve has increased the federal funds rate by one quarter of a percentage point, and has signaled that this initial move will be the first step in a gradual normalization of interest rates from the 0% to 0.25% range they have maintained since 2008. But the implications of this historic move are still being sorted out.

To help readers get a handle on what the future is likely to hold, GlobeSt.com asked three commercial real estate experts in capital markets and the economy to share their thoughts. Excerpts of their comments appear below.

Steven Kohn, president of Cushman & Wakefield Equity, Debt & Structured Finance, Cushman & Wakefield

GlobeSt.com: How will the investment environment be affected as the rate environment changes after a number of years?

Kohn: This has been a long time coming, so I don't think the Fed's action will produce a meaningful change in investors' outlook. If the Fed hadn't acted, it could have been the reverse: a signal that maybe the economy is weaker than we all think. Most investors have anticipated this, and have baked it into their strategies. I take the move as very positive, in that the Federal Reserve thinks the economy is on good footing. There appear to be gains in employment and wage growth, especially in the past couple of months, so that's very positive for real estate. Real estate thrives on job growth and wage growth across all uses, so that is more important to our industry than a 25-basis point move in the federal funds rate.

The announcement was that over three years, there might be a one-point increase in the rate per year. After three years, that becomes somewhat meaningful. But obviously, that can be changed at any time if the Fed believes that growth isn't keeping pace. You may have some investors looking to lock in more long-term debt right now, versus floating rate. But that depends on other factors as well: their typical holding periods, whatever other liquidity they may have—there's a lot that goes into that decision.

GlobeSt.com: In terms of pricing deals, how meaningful is the federal funds rate compared to 10-year Treasury rates?

Kohn: The Treasury is more meaningful to real estate. That rate is affected by many other factors around the world, related to investor demand for US Treasuries. But the greater correlation for real estate is growth. As I said at the beginning, that's really the most important factor in our business.

From what I've read, there's still no sense that inflation will escalate over the next five to 10 years. It should stay reasonably under control. If that's the case, then the long bond will, hopefully, stay low, which is good for real estate.

Ernie Katai, EVP, head of production, Berkadia Commercial Mortgage

GlobeSt.com: What are the near-term and long-term impacts of the Fed's decision likely to be?

Katai: A quarter point is by no means a drastic move. It's certainly not a knee-jerk reaction; they've taken their time to get to this point. The market has had a significant amount of signaling, and the market reacts when they think they know what's going to happen and have had plenty of time to think about it. From that standpoint, I think we've all been sitting around knowing tat this was coming sooner rather than later.

What's critical at this point is that market fundamentals, at least in the real estate sector, are very strong in terms of supply and demand of both debt and equity. From all indicators for 2016, and from everybody we're talking to for 2016, nobody's reducing their budgets, nobody's saying 'I'm going to lend less next year.' We're seeing full strong signals. That includes international: sovereign funds and that type of thing. Among the sovereign funds, we're seeing a huge interest in putting their money into real estate in the US. A lot of them contend that Europe doesn't look nearly as attractive; China has its own issues. As long as we continue to have those conversations and our money sources, including debt and equity, are still thinking along those lines, we'll be in pretty good shape.

When capital is more expensive, obviously it has an impact. You could potentially see a pregnant pause; if rates are rising materially, then you have something to worry about. But lenders have seen this coming; we've seen a widening of spreads for the past 60 days, and CMBS and bond markets have been somewhat turbulent. So the quarter point fits into the turbulence we've run into. But we still see good things ahead for real estate, and I don't think anybody is overly anxious or nervous.

Andrew Nelson, chief economist, Colliers International

GlobeSt.com: You have said that a rate increase was a step that the Fed could have taken, and ought to have taken, some time ago. How would the macro economy, and commercial real estate in particular, have benefited if the Fed had taken action sooner?

Nelson: In addition to the Fed's stated objectives, which include price stability and maintaining full employment, they also have an important role in setting the tone for the economy and keeping financial markets calm. There's no doubt that the economy was ready, but the financial markets for this were ready months ago. I think the undercut themselves by waiting to make this announcement. In effect, they were saying, "we don't think the economy is strong enough and we're too nervous to let the baby take its first tentative steps." That was the wrong signal to send to the market.

Long term, the bigger issue is that you need arrows in your quiver; you need tools to be able to fight the next recession. By waiting for the ideal conditions as they saw them, they were limiting their ability to fight the next one, because we're already all in.

The third issue is that the Fed was thinking that the danger of going in too early outweighed the danger of being too late. I would question that. The danger of going in too late is that inflation starts to spiral out of control, and they have to raise rates much more quickly and significantly than they otherwise would. In the end, they were pressured by forces external to what they should normally be considering, which were the Wolrd Bank and International Monetary Fund, and some of the markets were jittery. Ultimately, I don't think it was terrible, and I'm glad they finally did act, but I think it could have been sooner.

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Paul Bubny

Paul Bubny is managing editor of Real Estate Forum and GlobeSt.com. He has been reporting on business since 1988 and on commercial real estate since 2007. He is based at ALM Real Estate Media Group's offices in New York City.