SANTA BARBARA, CA—2016 promises to be another year of above-average rent growth in apartments, just not at the accelerated pace the sector has experienced for the past couple of years. Yardi Matrix is predicting "solid" increases for the year, "without the froth of 2015."

Specifically, the latest Yardi Matrix report projects 4.6% rent growth nationally this year, "led by many of the hot markets that produced outsize increases in 2015." Although the forecast represents a deceleration from the 6.5% gain recorded in the year just past, "rent growth will, nonetheless, outpace the eight-year average of 2.8%, satisfying most property owners."

As a case in point, the double-digit year-over-year rent growth winner among US metro areas in '15, Portland, OR, dips down into high single-digit territory in Yardi's forecast for this year. It is still in the top three at 9.2% projected rent growth, along with two other cities that topped the rankings for '15: also Denver, with 11.2% projected growth; and San Francisco, with 11%.

"All of these metros are home to intellectual hubs led by technology firms and offer the jobs, lifestyle amenities and climate that attract Millennials," according to the Yardi Matrix report. Rounding out the top five in rent growth projections are Sacramento at 8.8% and Austin at 8%.

In Austin's case, the metro area's status as "a haven for young, highly educated workers" is expected to help property owners fill units, despite supply increasing by 5.1% this year. For its part, Sacramento is benefiting from "proximity to markets with strong rent gains and the dearth of new supply, which has produced an extremely tight rental market despite relatively weak demand."

Similar to what we saw over the past year, Yardi says markets across the West and South should generate above-trend rent gains in the coming year, although Houston's rent growth is expected to moderate. The news is less positive for the Mid-Atlantic, Northeast and Midwest, all regions that have generally underperformed in recent years as population and job growth have shifted to the West and South.

Among the 111 metros forecast by Yardi Matrix, Richmond, VA and the Twin Cities comprise the bottom of the top 30, with expectations for essentially flat rents this year. The nation's capital ranks 27th, with an uptick of 0.8% anticipated for '16.

The problem for Washington, DC isn't demand, though, since the metro area's job market is strong and the population is increasing. Instead, it will be a 3.7% uptick in supply as some 8,800 units are projected to come on line this year.

Yardi's forecast of moderating rent growth broadly squares with a CoStar Group report that found rents falling into negative territory during the fourth quarter of '15. CoStar says same-store analysis of more than 50 million rent observations found that US apartment rents grew at an annualized pace of 9.4% during the first half of the year, but then decelerated to 2.7% growth in the second half, with Q4 in particular showing a decline across many metros.

"Our latest analysis confirms the historically strong growth in apartment rents over the first half of the year has given way to one of the weakest fourth quarters on record," says Andrew Florance, CoStar's founder and CEO. "We've always observed seasonality in apartment rents, but the downturn over the last three months of the year is certainly a noteworthy occurrence and one that would not be apparent in a year-over-year comparison. While it may be too soon to declare this a trend, it certainly bears watching."