And Donald Trump thinks we have a border crisis with Mexico. Most Euro countries have never really recovered from the big recession and are more vulnerable now to a downturn, because of enduring weakness as well as their very real refugee challenge. They are another drag.

So back to our CEO… Sure real estate gains have been mostly cap rate driven—national office markets still register mid-teen vacancies and bricks and mortar retailers are feeling a bit hungover after the Christmas binge of e-buying at their expense… While the office market has improved in 24-hour cities, a market peak approaches and unproven tech company newbees with questionable long-term prospects have been driving leasing in many hot spots… Google, Facebook and Amazon outperform, but then there is Yahoo… Foreign money, some of it dirty, has poured into residential looking for a safe home… To crack down on the money laundering, the U.S. Treasury Department will require offshore buyers of expensive ($3 million plus) homes and condos to reveal themselves rather than allowing them to hide behind complicated shell companies or straw buyer schemes, according to the New York Times. The super luxury residential market had started to cool off any way—as money isn't worth as much in Russia, South America and China… All this is happening just as developers accelerate construction on more expensive apartment condo projects citing significant demand and rent upticks… But the need is for new middle-income and affordable rental housing where increasing numbers of working class folk feel priced out even with a 5% unemployment rate… Middle market projects in which people actually live don't score the profits in the big cities with sky high land costs. So the pied-de terre luxury end looks like it will soon become overbuilt in New York and Miami among other places, while demand increases overall and is largely unmet. Probably the best bet for the year is buying or holding existing Class B and C apartments, executing value-add strategies and playing into the leasing demand—these properties will be safe cash cows through any downturn.

And what about the old saw which says that commercial real estate lags the stock market trend line usually by about six months to a year… 2015 was a flat year for U.S. stocks after a strong 2014 and the bears are prowling in the new year… Look for the edge to come off real estate in 2016… That CEO is concerned for a reason.