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2016 Is A time To Hunker Down And Sell

2016 is going to be a tough year in CRE

By Joel Ross | Updated on January 17, 2016

Those of you who have thought my concerns about black swans and potential negative future valuation were way over blown, should look carefully at the data now.  It is not just the collapse of the equities markets, but also the junk bond market, factory orders, labor participation rate, retail sales, and the yield on the ten year. There is no good news in any of this. The rest of the world continues to deteriorate, and terrorism and war continue to ramp up across the planet. China has very serious issues of economics, demographics, and corruption, and a vast excess of unneeded industrial and residential capacity along with a huge debt burden. They are not going to be able to fix all those issues in just a few strokes, and maybe not for several years. China is not going to be the growth engine, nor the fount of investor capital of the world any longer. India is a hopeless mess of corruption and bureaucracy, and will also not be a driver of growth. Europe remains a problem in the banking sector, and with the flood of refugees, they will see a continuation of terror attacks, and sexual assault and crimes by these refugees who come from a Muslim culture alien to western values. Europe has a lot of major problems that are not being addressed because Merkel is almost as misdirected as Obama.

 

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