SAN DIEGO—Expectations on speculative-office development vary from market to market in Southern California, and each region has its challenges, experts tell GlobeSt.com. We spoke exclusively with those in-the-know from different parts of the overall market to get their take on what we can expect from the spec-office sector in the near term.
Ben Tashakorian, First VP investments, Marcus & Millichap, San Diego: "While San Diego is leading speculative-office development overall, land normally slated for office development in San Diego's downtown and urban markets is selling for substantially more for multifamily and mixed-use development projects. As a result, there is increasing competition to secure land for office development projects."
Gary Steinhardt, senior director, investment group, American Realty Advisors, Los Angeles: "We expect to see increasing levels of construction and redevelopment in both CDB and, to a lesser degree, suburban markets over the coming years. Tenant demand has been gravitating toward high-quality space despite wide spreads between class-A and class-B rents. This trend differs somewhat from previous cycles in which we saw tenants gravitate to class-A buildings when rents were depressed, but then move to more value-oriented space as the cycle progressed and rents in the class-A buildings recovered. Today, tenants appear to be willing to pay for quality space, which bodes well for development, quality repositioning and adaptive-reuse investment strategies. The creative-office trend appears to be maturing, with variations on the creative theme appealing to all industries. The term creative office is being replaced with "lifestyle office," which appeals to a broader base of tenants, including those in the FIRE sectors. In many markets, this trend is being driven by competition for talent as employers realize the important role that their physical environment plays in recruiting top candidates today. The one thing that hasn't changed is the importance of location, proximity to executive and employee housing, and the presence of significant amenities within and around employers' space."
Jerry Holdner, VP of market research, Voit Real Estate Services, Orange County: "Employment gains have been positive, and employment growth is expected to keep growing in a variety of sectors throughout Southern California. Currently, all economic indicators suggest that strong demand will continue. Supply is depleting in most markets, with vacancy rates checking in at around 12% at the end of the third quarter of 2015. Los Angeles is currently at 12.5%, Orange County at 10.5% and San Diego at 12.1%. For example, in Orange County it's getting more difficult to find large blocks of space, which is putting upward pressure on rents. Therefore, we are seeing increases in lease rates in Southern California across the board with annual double-digit rates in some areas. This is the catalyst of the increase in construction we're seeing. We've been waiting for lease rates to get to a point where it makes economic sense to build, and we are there now in a few submarkets."
Michael Lawrence, SVP investments, Marcus & Millichap, Newport Beach: "While speculative development is certainly picking up, net absorption remains well above expected construction totals in all Orange County markets. Most projects, when speculative in nature, target the urban-core office areas with high-tech, class-A products where demand for contiguous office space is the highest. As a result, the projects are likely to be filled shortly after delivery as tenants move to more modern spaces."
Martin Agnew, VP investments, Marcus & Millichap, Encino: "While speculative development is certainly picking up in Los Angeles as well, net absorption remains well above expected construction totals in Los Angeles County where planned completions are less than half of demand. Most speculative projects target the urban-core office areas where demand is highest.
Stacy Meronoff, director of leasing, Cruzan, San Diego: "Whether it's spec or repurposing, most cutting-edge office space coming to the San Diego market is amenity rich. Cruzan's projects, make (Carlsbad), Verge (Sorrento Mesa) and DiamondView Tower (Downtown), all offer fitness facilities, food, indoor/outdoor work spaces, rooftop decks, outdoor WiFi and great views. Each project seeks to remain authentic to its environment and take full advantage of the location that makes it special. For instance, Verge offers outdoor running trails and yoga on the lawn overlooking Penasquitos Canyon. make has rooftop deck opportunities with ocean views, as well as an outdoor shower area where tenants can rinse off surfboards and wetsuits. DiamondView Tower has the SkyBox on the 15th floor, which looks into the ballpark. The focus is on creating spaces and experiences that make the tenants happier, healthier and more productive."
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