CHICAGO—Commercial real estate in the US had another strong year in 2015, and the industrial sector was no exception. And as experts look ahead to 2016, most believe that this progress will continue.
And the strength seen in for several years in most of the core markets, which has made industrial properties quite popular with investors, has begun to spread into the secondary or tertiary areas.
"I think that what we are beginning to see in many markets is tangible rent growth and tangible increases in occupancy rates," Erik Foster, a Chicago-based principal of Avison Young, tells GlobeSt.com. This should help bring in even more investment dollars to the sector.
Investment sales were already quite strong in 2015, and then at the end of the year, Exeter Property Group was set to sell about 55 million square feet of US industrial space to a partnership of Abu Dhabi Investment Authority and PSP Investments, for about $3 billion. Foster expects more of these big deals in 2016, and says that with all of the capital coming in, the "market is more complicated than it ever was. You have got a more global marketplace chasing assets in the US, which many now see as a safe harbor."
That view is certainly understandable. The US industrial markets tracked by Avison Young comprised 10.3 billion square feet of space, and according to its 2016 forecast and outlook report, the sector had a vacancy rate at year-end of just 6.3%, compared with 6.8% one year earlier. Furthermore, the tight market conditions have kept rental rates on the rise. "We have a historically low vacancy rate," Foster says, "and that should continue."
Speculative construction has returned and, altogether, 130 million square feet is underway, driven by operators' need to be closer to the consumer and demand for modern buildings to handle automated individual- and bulk-order processing.
"In 2016, development should increase, but it will stay at a modest pace," Foster adds. "Most people have really good memories of the downturn, and are being very prudent; this is very healthy and it is happening in many markets."
One sign of the discipline is that just six US markets each had construction volume equal to or exceeding 10 million square feet and together accounted for 64% of the nation's total: Dallas, with 17.4 million, Los Angeles with 17 million, Atlanta with 14.6 million, Philadelphia with 14.3 million, Houston with 10.7 million and Chicago with 10 million.
And new deliveries should have little impact on overall vacancy in 2016 as nearly half of all projects are already preleased. "That shows the resilliency of tenants in this asset class," Foster says.
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