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TUSTIN, CA—It seems as if a new restaurant is popping up everywhere you turn, but the fast-casual industry is also consistently evolving, Coreland Co.'s director of retail brokerage Matt Hammond tells GlobeSt.com. We spoke exclusively with Hammond about how restaurants fit into the mix at this point in the cycle and other trends he's noticing in Southern California's retail sector.
GlobeSt.com: Just how many restaurants can Southern California urban and suburban neighborhoods support to off-set traditional retail?
Hammond: The growth of the restaurant and service categories has somewhat "filled the gap," resulting from the slower growth and expansion efforts of traditional retailers. For the third consecutive year, these categories significantly outpaced traditional retail in terms of shopping center leasing. Just based on our portfolio, restaurant tenants accounted for 41% of all deals in 2015.
It definitely seems as if a new restaurant is popping everywhere you turn, but the fast casual industry is also consistently evolving. There are a number of national concepts taking big risks and making fundamental changes. All of this will mean aggressive growth and change for some local and national QSRs like Halal Guys, Dunkin' Donuts and Dickey's Barbeque, to name a few.
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GlobeSt.com: Will gyms, cinemas and other entertainment deals continue to pencil for tenants and landlords alike?
Hammond: With size requirements ranging from 10,000 square feet to 80,000 square feet, gyms and entertainment options fill a definite need. However, the challenge remains that they require significant tenant-improvement dollars, which is a difficult pill to swallow for most landlords. They have proven to complement the tenant mix and drive traffic. The deal might be uncomfortable for a landlord up front, but it is a reasonable investment for long-term stability.
GlobeSt.com: Will modest new construction impact shopping center leasing in 2016?
Hammond: Unfortunately, or fortunately, there continues to be so much change in the retail industry that a modest level of new construction in our market is not a bad thing. Vacancy remains low, but we expect enough excess space to be going back to market to keep supply and demand balanced. Retailers remain cautious about stepping up to pay the rents necessary to support ground-up and major redevelopment, so repositionings and renovations are more viable.
GlobeSt.com: What factors will have to be in place this year to see growth in our regional commercial real estate market?
Hammond: While the strongest retailers are experiencing more robust sales, ongoing mergers, consolidations and "right-sizing" efforts continue to off-set positive growth in traditional retail categories. Major store-closing announcements by Macy's and Walmart have sent us all back to the drawing board to creatively breakdown big-box space into smaller, more relevant uses.
Location, location, location is a must for growing retailers. Activity is back in secondary and tertiary markets, primarily in centers positioned on Main-and-Main. Whether you are in a coastal market or tertiary market, one thing remains the same: tenants compete for the best visibility, access and signage.
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