SANTA BARBARA, CA—Although 2016 is a year in which apartment rent growth is widely expected to begin tapering, the first month of this year hasn't borne out that expectation. Yardi Matrix data show thatthe average national rate reached an all-time high over the past month, climbing $5 to $1,170, following a quarter of seasonally flat rent growth.

On an annual basis, January saw rents increase by 6.4%. "Although we expect rent gains to begin to moderate this year, growth is still surpassing the 2.8% long-term average," according to Yardi's latest Matrix Monthly report.

And while annual rent growth continues to be led by "the usual high-flying metros on the West Coast and in the Southeast," including Portland, OR, San Francisco and Atlanta, Yardi says the increases have been "remarkably widespread" geographically over the past 12 months. With year-over-year rent growth of 2.2%, Baltimore is the only metro area in the Matrix Monthly Top 30 with annual growth of less than 3%.

Metro areas with above-average Y-O-Y rent growth over the past year, that are neither on the West Coast nor in the so-called Smile States, include Boston, Kansas City, Philadelphia, the Twin Cities, Chicago and Washington, DC. For 2016, Yardi is forecasting Y-O-Y rent growth above the eight-year average for 23 of the metro areas in its top 30, led by Denver with 11.2% growth and San Francisco with 11.0%.

Yardi's monthly report notes a mood of "confidence in the sector's strength" at the National Multifamily Housing Council's Annual Meeting earlier this month. That confidence shone through notwithstanding the results of NMHC's latest Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions, which showed that all four indices fell below the break-even level of 50. 

The Santa Barbara, CA-based firm notes that the conference's sense of optimism stemmed from "a range of demographic and fundamental factors," to include ongoing strong job growth, the increase in the number of Millennial-age renters, lower homeownership rates due to rent preferences and credit issues, tight vacancy rates in most markets and the "avalanche of capital from investors" that want to own US multifamily properties. "The sector is facing some headwinds—such as the possibility of an economic slowdown and the mismatch between demand for affordable units and the increasing supply of luxury properties—but the consensus was that the market is strong enough to overcome any such hurdles," according to Yardi's report.

That continues to be the case, Yardi says, even with recent events such as stock market turbulence and concerns about a hard landing in China. "Should the multifamily market be worried? The short answer is probably not, but market players should be cautious," the report states. "Stock market volatility is not uncommon. The market dropped 10% last year and quickly rebounded." Moreover, according to Yardi, the factors underpinning the stock market's recent decline "really have a fairly minor impact on the US economy and should have little to do with demand for multifamily units."

The report notes, though, that "if recent economic history has taught us anything, it is that serious problems often start out as exogenous events that snowball into something larger. But for the time being, multifamily demand fundamentals and the capital markets are in good shape."