emanating from Dodd-Frank Basel III that could well dry up FIRPTA in the budget deal last December A Dramatic Drop A Tough Crowd
All you have to do is look at the volatility index, especially on the public side, to see the uncertainty that's been caused by growth fears in China and the perception of growth fears in the US,” said one. “We're trending to a negative bias right now because of that volatility.
On one hand, obviously the US economy is doing better than most other parts of the world. The challenge for all of us is beginning the process of letting interest rates find their independent level after they have been artificially controlled by Fed for so long. Since we don't have a good sense of how to price things, it's hard to know what premiums should be for different asset classes.
Stronger real estate fundamentals and capital investments are flowing more broadly into secondary markets... It used to be a tale of six markets where everyone else was lagging. Today you've still got the top six or so, but the next 15 have improved dramatically.
There has been a dearth of new supply since construction costs continue to rise in most markets. There are very few markets with construction starts ahead of 1% of inventory which is historically low... will be more redevelopment and repositioning of assets.
It feels like asset values are peaking with cap rates so low and interest rates picking up. Will total returns outpace rental growth in 2016? It's hard to imagine cap rates compressing further, so we're going to have to drive returns through NOI growth.
I see asset values as flat to down over the next 12 months. Valuations have been sentiment driven, and central banks are less powerful today than they were last time around. My worry is that when sentiment changes, we won't have enough within monetary policy to fix the issue, and nobody's been able to enact fiscal policy.
Though we've seen some flattening of the increase, I think asset values will slightly appreciate by the end of the year. Residential asset values in particular will continue trending upwards over the next 2-4 quarters notwithstanding some type of correction.”
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