CRE Execs Look for Fed to Provide Stability in 2016
CHICAGO—Seyfarth Shaw surveyed hundreds of CRE professionals and found that while many are hawkish on Fed rate increases, "rising interest rates" are also their biggest concern for 2016.
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Brian J. Rogal |
brianjrogal |
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Updated on February 12, 2016
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Ron Gart of Seyfarth Shaw’s Washington DC office.CHICAGO—Although the US economy pulled out of the tailspin caused by the 2008 financial crisis, the world does seem to be growing complex, with looming challenges due to turmoil in China, the possibility of more terrorism attacks, the way high-tech tools could transform the workplace, and many other factors. And, as reported in GlobeSt.com, the Chicago-based law firm Seyfarth Shaw decided it was time to take stock of how commercial real estate executives thought about the world and the challenges it now presents.Its “2016 Real Estate Market Sentiment Survey” also discovered how many felt about the possibility of future increases in interest rates, the growing “gig economy” and even which of the presidential candidates would best serve the CRE industry. This was the firm’s inaugural effort doing this type of survey, but probably not the last.“The response to our survey has further validated the opportunity we saw for this type of new insight into the marketplace,” Ron Gart, a partner in the Washington, DC office, tells GlobeSt.com. “Based on the reaction, we are encouraged enough to go forward on an annual basis.”The respondents, who included owners, developers and brokers, largely took a “hawkish” attitude toward interest rates, and expect the Federal Reserve to increase rates this year. Seventy-one percent expect multiple rate increases, and 43% said the industry could handle an increase of 51 to 100 bps.“We have been riding the crest of a rebound for five or six years,” Gart says, and since so many metrics such as job growth remain positive, most respondents feel it is time for the zero or near-zero interest rate era to end.Still, “rising interest rates” are the top concern that CRE executives have about the coming year, topping issues such assupply/demand problems, US banking regulations, or maturing CMBS loans. “It’s a bottom line expense,” Gart says, and landlords locked into long-term leases could be hurt by big rate increases. The best solution? “Anything that results in stability is what the real estate market wants to see.”The recent decision to boost interest rates is a good example, since it was telegraphed by Fed officials far in advance, giving the industry time to prepare. If the Fed adopts a similar strategy in 2016, with gradual rate increases preceded by signals that the market understands, it will probably allay these concerns. “When you can’t plan that is the worst,” Gart says. “Having a sense of the future is critical.” Next week, we will look at what CRE executives had to say about the “gig economy,” the possibility that high-tech jobs are luring top talent away from real estate careers, and their feelings about a presidential candidate that has made a bit of a name for himself in the CRE industry.
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