Jonathan D. Miller

Do I have a value real estate proposition for you. Just go to Havana.

Apartment makeovers—There are rows and rows on streets and streets of highly attractive, but falling apart multi-colored townhouse structures, waiting for massive upgrades. Marble staircases, wrought iron verandas, colonnaded entries, and courtyard gardens are ready for full scale makeovers.

Office buildings—Various mid-sized art deco towers and a smattering of Soviet-inspired nouveaux Cold War prison-like edifices rise up around the city. You can be sure nothing is LEED certified.

Hotels—The harbor front Malecon esplanade cries out for more modern-ocean view accommodations to accompany the famous and handsome Hotel Nacional, which stands out on a modest bluff overlooking the clustered proletarians seeking a sea breeze or fishing across the way on the breakwater. Up the street, mobster Meyer Lansky's 50s-style, blue-tiled Riviera (think Godfather II, Michael making deals on the penthouse balcony just before the revolution) sits dark except for its neon yellow roof top sign and the Copa Room ground floor bar—Mojito anyone? A few other modernized hotels like the Saratoga skirt the old city, but putting on the Ritz is not much in evidence.

Resorts—The beachfront hotels east and west of the city might have worked for sourpuss Soviet apparatchiks looking for something better than Black Sea bathing and the thin population sliver of made-man-and-woman Cuban government elites, but either these lodgings feature sterile amenities or have aged into dumps.

Retail—Shopping Centers Hunh? High Street Retail. Whah? Spendthrifts will have trouble satisfying their appetites here, in fact, Cuba is a great place to take your shopaholic spouse… It actually is hard to spot where people buy stuff. If you can find a store of any stripe, shelves are nearly bare. In warm climes and with small government-set incomes, t-shirts, shorts and sneakers can get you by—brands are nowhere to be seen, although I found a building with a dated Philips Hotpoint logo over what is now a tourist restaurant. Actually it's rather refreshing to be in a place without Yankee fast food signs and smells. And how long before the first Starbucks shows up? That would be a pity.

Infrastructure—Just about the whole city needs to be repaved. People are friendly, street crime seems non-existent despite evident poverty (they have enough to eat, a place to sleep, free medical, and no guns) so the biggest danger really is tripping on the crumbling, hole-pocked sidewalks or falling over broken curbs. I knew where President Obama would visit just by coming upon road crews feverishly smoothing out new asphalt on streets near top tourist attractions hours before his arrival. As for Jose Marti, the international airport makes New York's LaGuardia look cutting edge 21st Century by comparison. Start with no jetways and waiting two hours for your bag.

So in the wake of the President's visit and the Tamp Bay baseball win will the Castro regime open the door wide to U.S. investment and welcome in developers? “Unlikely” says a British diplomat I ran into. “Cuba moves very slowly.” It almost certainly won't happen until, if as planned, Raul Castro steps down in a couple of years, and at present there seems little interest in giving free rein to any outsiders—the government would keep majority stake in any enterprise.

But more U.S. tourists will be coming with eased visiting restrictions and the people want any dollars and euros they can scrounge. Two college professors picked me up at the airport to earn the cab fare and they eagerly arranged to take me back. At an upscale restaurant the late 20s-something head waiter Pedro with an engineering degree had left his government job to work 18 hour days, making considerably more earning tips. Those allowed to open their homes for Airbnb-style accommodations at $30-$50 a night are setting themselves apart economically too. Foreign induced capitalism is creeping into the system.

Hovering overall is Fidel—still alive and probably wielding some level of control even in retirement. The U.S. has been waiting for him to pass on for more than 50 years and meanwhile the real estate potential locked in crumbling Havana waits too.

Jonathan D. Miller

Do I have a value real estate proposition for you. Just go to Havana.

Apartment makeovers—There are rows and rows on streets and streets of highly attractive, but falling apart multi-colored townhouse structures, waiting for massive upgrades. Marble staircases, wrought iron verandas, colonnaded entries, and courtyard gardens are ready for full scale makeovers.

Office buildings—Various mid-sized art deco towers and a smattering of Soviet-inspired nouveaux Cold War prison-like edifices rise up around the city. You can be sure nothing is LEED certified.

Hotels—The harbor front Malecon esplanade cries out for more modern-ocean view accommodations to accompany the famous and handsome Hotel Nacional, which stands out on a modest bluff overlooking the clustered proletarians seeking a sea breeze or fishing across the way on the breakwater. Up the street, mobster Meyer Lansky's 50s-style, blue-tiled Riviera (think Godfather II, Michael making deals on the penthouse balcony just before the revolution) sits dark except for its neon yellow roof top sign and the Copa Room ground floor bar—Mojito anyone? A few other modernized hotels like the Saratoga skirt the old city, but putting on the Ritz is not much in evidence.

Resorts—The beachfront hotels east and west of the city might have worked for sourpuss Soviet apparatchiks looking for something better than Black Sea bathing and the thin population sliver of made-man-and-woman Cuban government elites, but either these lodgings feature sterile amenities or have aged into dumps.

Retail—Shopping Centers Hunh? High Street Retail. Whah? Spendthrifts will have trouble satisfying their appetites here, in fact, Cuba is a great place to take your shopaholic spouse… It actually is hard to spot where people buy stuff. If you can find a store of any stripe, shelves are nearly bare. In warm climes and with small government-set incomes, t-shirts, shorts and sneakers can get you by—brands are nowhere to be seen, although I found a building with a dated Philips Hotpoint logo over what is now a tourist restaurant. Actually it's rather refreshing to be in a place without Yankee fast food signs and smells. And how long before the first Starbucks shows up? That would be a pity.

Infrastructure—Just about the whole city needs to be repaved. People are friendly, street crime seems non-existent despite evident poverty (they have enough to eat, a place to sleep, free medical, and no guns) so the biggest danger really is tripping on the crumbling, hole-pocked sidewalks or falling over broken curbs. I knew where President Obama would visit just by coming upon road crews feverishly smoothing out new asphalt on streets near top tourist attractions hours before his arrival. As for Jose Marti, the international airport makes New York's LaGuardia look cutting edge 21st Century by comparison. Start with no jetways and waiting two hours for your bag.

So in the wake of the President's visit and the Tamp Bay baseball win will the Castro regime open the door wide to U.S. investment and welcome in developers? “Unlikely” says a British diplomat I ran into. “Cuba moves very slowly.” It almost certainly won't happen until, if as planned, Raul Castro steps down in a couple of years, and at present there seems little interest in giving free rein to any outsiders—the government would keep majority stake in any enterprise.

But more U.S. tourists will be coming with eased visiting restrictions and the people want any dollars and euros they can scrounge. Two college professors picked me up at the airport to earn the cab fare and they eagerly arranged to take me back. At an upscale restaurant the late 20s-something head waiter Pedro with an engineering degree had left his government job to work 18 hour days, making considerably more earning tips. Those allowed to open their homes for Airbnb-style accommodations at $30-$50 a night are setting themselves apart economically too. Foreign induced capitalism is creeping into the system.

Hovering overall is Fidel—still alive and probably wielding some level of control even in retirement. The U.S. has been waiting for him to pass on for more than 50 years and meanwhile the real estate potential locked in crumbling Havana waits too.

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Jonathan D. Miller

A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.

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