NEW YORK CITY—Thus far in 2016—in an extension of last year—volatility has roiled commercial real estate. There's been turmoil in CMBS lending and volatility in the public markets, along with a high degree of uncertainty fueled by the run-up to the Presidential election.
What does all this mean for net-lease investors? A couple of them chimed in on that with GlobeSt.com—just as they'll be doing at RealShare Net LeaseWednesday in Midtown—in this EXCLUSIVE story.
“Depending what happens with CMBS, it's going to an interesting year,” forecasts Gordon Whiting, managing director, Angelo, Gordon & Co. “We'll see a decent number of acquisitions, cap rates have kind of leveled off for a while and the CMBS market seems to be snapping into place but if it goes back to where it was, or becomes more volatile that makes it hard for people to know their underlying cost of debt. But the last three CMBS issuances have priced better than expectation so the market is definitely improving.”
Meanwhile, Angelo, Gordon is staying the course, Whiting notes. “We remain focused on less than investment grade tenants and are looking to find properties critical to their operation. We don't shy away from secondary and tertiary markets, we're looking for long-term, leases. We've bought in Europe and Canada, and will continue to do so.
He elaborates, “We're primarily in industrial and I like less than investment grade credit because historically there have been fewer players and we can charge more rent. We like industrial because of our focus on critical operations—factories certainly are that.”
Another player is more focused on selling rather than buying, taking note of somewhat unusual market conditions. “Cap rates remain low, the bidding on properties is very aggressive and we, like other REITs, are constrained by share price,” notes Richard Rouse, vice chairman & CIO, Lexington Realty Trust. “We can buy our own stock back at a dividend yield at 8% so it's tough to justify a property purchase at 6%.”
He continues, “Last year we announced a 10 million share buy back program and we have completed about 3.4 million of that. So we only bought one property in the first quarter, we've been more active in selling properties. We aren't looking to purchase single tenant deals with less than 12-year leases and we prefer 15 to 25 years. We want long leases and then want to sell with at least 10 years left because that's more saleable and has much lower cap rates than if only three years are left.”
And market conditions have created some unexpected bonuses, Rouse notes. “We've been surprised at the prices we've been able to achieve; about 15% on average higher than our own net asset value assumption. The US economy is still headed in the right direction so we're seeing a lot of build-to-suit and new development activity, with most office markets getting stronger, except for oil patch cities. There's plenty of supply of new opportunities.
However, at least one upcoming event could create some turbulence, Rouse notes.
“We're interested in the political landscape,” he reveals. “It's hard to get bullish on any of the Presidential candidates, so I believe we'll hit some bumps in the next six to eight months.”
What does all this mean for net-lease investors? A couple of them chimed in on that with GlobeSt.com—just as they'll be doing at RealShare Net LeaseWednesday in Midtown—in this EXCLUSIVE story.
“Depending what happens with CMBS, it's going to an interesting year,” forecasts Gordon Whiting, managing director,
Meanwhile, Angelo, Gordon is staying the course, Whiting notes. “We remain focused on less than investment grade tenants and are looking to find properties critical to their operation. We don't shy away from secondary and tertiary markets, we're looking for long-term, leases. We've bought in Europe and Canada, and will continue to do so.
He elaborates, “We're primarily in industrial and I like less than investment grade credit because historically there have been fewer players and we can charge more rent. We like industrial because of our focus on critical operations—factories certainly are that.”
Another player is more focused on selling rather than buying, taking note of somewhat unusual market conditions. “Cap rates remain low, the bidding on properties is very aggressive and we, like other REITs, are constrained by share price,” notes Richard Rouse, vice chairman & CIO, Lexington Realty Trust. “We can buy our own stock back at a dividend yield at 8% so it's tough to justify a property purchase at 6%.”
He continues, “Last year we announced a 10 million share buy back program and we have completed about 3.4 million of that. So we only bought one property in the first quarter, we've been more active in selling properties. We aren't looking to purchase single tenant deals with less than 12-year leases and we prefer 15 to 25 years. We want long leases and then want to sell with at least 10 years left because that's more saleable and has much lower cap rates than if only three years are left.”
And market conditions have created some unexpected bonuses, Rouse notes. “We've been surprised at the prices we've been able to achieve; about 15% on average higher than our own net asset value assumption. The US economy is still headed in the right direction so we're seeing a lot of build-to-suit and new development activity, with most office markets getting stronger, except for oil patch cities. There's plenty of supply of new opportunities.
However, at least one upcoming event could create some turbulence, Rouse notes.
“We're interested in the political landscape,” he reveals. “It's hard to get bullish on any of the Presidential candidates, so I believe we'll hit some bumps in the next six to eight months.”
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