Latin America is overall in for many years of turmoil and Brazil and Venezuela come apart politically and economically. Civil war of some sort is highly likely in Venezuela and civil disruption short of all out civil war is likely for a couple of years in Brazil. The incumbents are not likely to go peacefully. While Argentina seems to be a country on the fast track to improve, the jury is still out.

The rest of the world remains a dangerous mess and is going to get worse so long as Obama is in office. He has a disastrous foreign policy and has led the world to a situation more dangerous than any since the height of the cold war. This has destabilized the world and has left our key allies in the mid east very wary and uncertain. That has left things even more uncertain and dangerous.

All in, we have been left in a situation where we have a president that is incompetent and anti business who will be replaced by either an ego maniac self promoter with no clear policy agenda, or one who is a criminal and has proven to be subject to the far left wing which will be bad for business. This is not a time for real risk taking unless there is a very clear discount to acquire and an outsized return probablility.

Although things seem to have calmed down and stabilized, the future is remaining very unclear. Neither of the presidential candidates bodes well for the country or CRE. Although Trump is a real estate developer, he has failed at several of his development projects and his real talent is self promotion. There is zero clarity on any of his policies, and little of what he says can be believed. It is not that he will do things that hurt the industry, but that he has no clear strategies or policy positions that will be good for the country or the economy. Hilary may well be indicted and if elected she will be subject to pressure from Elizabeth Warren and the far left which will mean higher taxes for us and damage to lenders. None of which is good for CRE. It is a matter of the lesser of two terribles and Trump overall is likely better for CRE since he is one of us.

Europe remains a mess and is likely to get much worse. They have never dealt with their banking structural issues, and are not likely to do so anytime soon. The migrant problem is just beginning. It is not just the flood of migrants, but longer term, the huge number of unassimilated Muslims, and the terrorist influences we have already seen in Brussels and Paris, are only going to get much worse. The new Muslims will not be integrated and will grow in numbers to a point of creating new social and economic problems. It is estimated that given current immigration and birth rates, Muslims will be a majority in places like Netherlands, and Belgium in ten years and possibly in parts of France after that.

The European economy is highly dependent on exports to Russia and China and other places where the economies are going to struggle for many more years. As a result, investing in European real estate is probably not a great thing unless it is acquired at deep discounts and can be leased to very strong tenants.

Latin America is overall in for many years of turmoil and Brazil and Venezuela come apart politically and economically. Civil war of some sort is highly likely in Venezuela and civil disruption short of all out civil war is likely for a couple of years in Brazil. The incumbents are not likely to go peacefully. While Argentina seems to be a country on the fast track to improve, the jury is still out.

The rest of the world remains a dangerous mess and is going to get worse so long as Obama is in office. He has a disastrous foreign policy and has led the world to a situation more dangerous than any since the height of the cold war. This has destabilized the world and has left our key allies in the mid east very wary and uncertain. That has left things even more uncertain and dangerous.

All in, we have been left in a situation where we have a president that is incompetent and anti business who will be replaced by either an ego maniac self promoter with no clear policy agenda, or one who is a criminal and has proven to be subject to the far left wing which will be bad for business. This is not a time for real risk taking unless there is a very clear discount to acquire and an outsized return probablility.