LAS VEGAS—GlobeSt.com is here in full force at ICSC's RECon event and chatted with attendee Eli Randel, director of business development at CREXi, on his thoughts on the market. As GlobeSt.com previously reported, Randel heads the new CREXi Miami office for the firm. Randel said that his simple “gut-feeling” view, based on the 900-plus deals the firm is working on throughout the country, is that there will be more of the same in the overall retail and economic environment.
But what is the same? “Many retailers will struggle and a few more will go out of business before the end of the year, however the stronger brands and segments will continue to shine,” Randel explains. “Economic conditions will feel ideal for the top earners while conditions for the rest will feel mostly stagnant.”
He tells GlobeSt.com that “We will continue to see a 'slack-tide' real estate cycle whereas most investors sense a shift and a cooling period approaching, but peak conditions (yields, occupancy, rental rates, access to capital) will continue—with deals getting harder to execute—unless or until a black swan event occurs acting as a catalyst for change.”
Randel notes that “The glut of maturities originally anticipated to default between 2015-2017 as a result of 10-year financing during the previous cycle peak, will mostly continue to be 'money good' (maybe barely) and will successfully refinance leaning towards bank and balance sheet loan products as the CMBS market faces some spread and regulatory challenges.”
He adds that distress players will have to wait on the sidelines for an extra inning or two before some a large supply of opportunistically priced deals begin to churn through the system.
Stay tuned for more from Eli in the coming days and stay tuned for all our retail coverage from ICSC's RECon conference.
LAS VEGAS—GlobeSt.com is here in full force at ICSC's RECon event and chatted with attendee Eli Randel, director of business development at CREXi, on his thoughts on the market. As GlobeSt.com previously reported, Randel heads the new CREXi Miami office for the firm. Randel said that his simple “gut-feeling” view, based on the 900-plus deals the firm is working on throughout the country, is that there will be more of the same in the overall retail and economic environment.
But what is the same? “Many retailers will struggle and a few more will go out of business before the end of the year, however the stronger brands and segments will continue to shine,” Randel explains. “Economic conditions will feel ideal for the top earners while conditions for the rest will feel mostly stagnant.”
He tells GlobeSt.com that “We will continue to see a 'slack-tide' real estate cycle whereas most investors sense a shift and a cooling period approaching, but peak conditions (yields, occupancy, rental rates, access to capital) will continue—with deals getting harder to execute—unless or until a black swan event occurs acting as a catalyst for change.”
Randel notes that “The glut of maturities originally anticipated to default between 2015-2017 as a result of 10-year financing during the previous cycle peak, will mostly continue to be 'money good' (maybe barely) and will successfully refinance leaning towards bank and balance sheet loan products as the CMBS market faces some spread and regulatory challenges.”
He adds that distress players will have to wait on the sidelines for an extra inning or two before some a large supply of opportunistically priced deals begin to churn through the system.
Stay tuned for more from Eli in the coming days and stay tuned for all our retail coverage from ICSC's RECon conference.
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Natalie Dolce
Natalie Dolce, editor-in-chief of GlobeSt.com and GlobeSt. Real Estate Forum, is responsible for working with editorial staff, freelancers and senior management to help plan the overarching vision that encompasses GlobeSt.com, including short-term and long-term goals for the website, how content integrates through the company’s other product lines and the overall quality of content. Previously she served as national executive editor and editor of the West Coast region for GlobeSt.com and Real Estate Forum, and was responsible for coverage of news and information pertaining to that vital real estate region. Prior to moving out to the Southern California office, she was Northeast bureau chief, covering New York City for GlobeSt.com. Her background includes a stint at InStyle Magazine, and as managing editor with New York Press, an alternative weekly New York City paper. In her career, she has also covered a variety of beats for M magazine, Arthur Frommer's Budget Travel, FashionLedge.com, and Co-Ed magazine. Dolce has also freelanced for a number of publications, including MSNBC.com and Museums New York magazine.
