The Revolution Has Begun

Brexit will play out in very different ways for different people. Brexit is the grandfather of black swans that I have been talking about for quite awhile. It will have ramifications far beyond just the capital markets impacts. It is the first chapter of a major revolution taking place in Europe, the UK and here in the US. It is why Trump and Sanders were successful even though both should have failed miserably. The average person in all these places feels the world has changed in ways they do not want and do not like. In the UK it is Brussels bureaucracy telling them how to live their lives and that they must take in Muslim refugees. That was the real trigger for all of this. Had Obama and Hilary intervened early in Syria, and had they left behind the 20,000 combat troops in Iraq that all the generals said was required, we would have a very different world and Brexit never would have happened.  By allowing the rise of ISIS and world terror, and creating the conditions that led to the mass migration of Muslims into Judeo Christian Europe, they set off a political storm that is now at a crescendo. Angela Merkel compounded this by pushing to allow over one million Muslim refugees to pour into Germany and more into other parts of Europe. There is no way to know who any of these people are and the result has been terror attacks and fear generated.  Towns across Germany are being burdened with refugees whole culture is alien to these places and is a burden to their services. The political backlash has now begun. The UK has had its own influx of Muslims for decades when the commonwealth fell apart, especially from Pakistan. They have mainly settled in the north and Midlands and that is where Brexit won. The rust belt of the UK. With the average bloke. This is the exact same demographic cohort that is taking Trump to be president. As terrible as he is, he will win because people are fed up with politically correct, massive immigration from Mexico, and over regulation of their lives. It is why Texans want to hold their own Texit vote. This is the Nixon silent majority risen from the ashes who will elect another bad guy despite whatever the mass media and pundits say. If Rubio or Kasich were the candidate Hilary would be down by 15% or more. She is only in the running because Trump is so distasteful.  There is a rumor floating around DC that the FBIO will recommend indictment in July to do it before the convention. If that unsubstantiated rumor is true, Lynch will defer and say it was a mistake but not criminal and Trump will win big. There is a western world revolution now starting to take back our world. Most Americans are fed up with the DC elite deciding what we are allowed to think and say, how we should act and who we have to be friends with. The utterly disgraceful scene this week of the Dems holding a sit down in the floor of the House is emblematic of how far the left has taken things. If we are now to be governed by mob protest instead of the constitution, we are no longer a country of laws, but instead we will be like college campuses,  a place where thought is proscribed, the first amendment is eliminated and any speech or thought not conforming is banished and punished. What the Dems did was set a unlawful and dangerous example for young people. If you do not like what others are doing shut it down, don’t go by decorum or rules. When voters outside the elites see that they become fed up and decide to revolt. That is what this revolution is all about and why Brexit won and why Trump will win. For US CRE Brexit is likely very good.  Rates will remain low for years. Capital will flow here for investment because now Europe will become far too risky, it will have a recession and the EU will likely disintegrate over the next several years. If you were foolish enough o invest in hard assets in Europe over the past several years, you are a big loser now. Those who rushed in with big funds and bought up major assets will lose big. There is no way out for years. Between currency declines and total lack of liquidity, and a probable recession, there is no way a real estate investment will be successful unless it is well leased already. New leases will now be very hard to sign. So, as I have suggested for years, stay here in the US. Do not go out on the risk curve unless you due dili that risk very carefully. The political revolution has just begun and where things go from here is unknown, but stability and growth in the world are not going to happen for years. You have Obama and Hilary to thank for that.