Lee: We are currently in the last 12 to 24 months of this real estate cycle. Our analytics indicate that this cycle will likely end around 2018. The actual timing could shift based on significant, unexpected events. The current real estate cycle, called the “Age of Capital, Asset & Entity Rebalancing,” will give way to a four-year period of transition before the next real estate cycle begins around 2023. The new cycle will be called the “Age of Globalization & Knowledge.” In the next cycle, technology will significantly impact every aspect of the real estate industry. There will be market winners and market losers. Growth will come from linkages, adjacencies and connectivity to life services, biotechnology, alternative energy, the Internet of Everything, healthcare, technology advancements, micro-farming, a shift to more environmentally sustainable building products and practices and artificial intelligence. There will be many disruptive technologies before and during the next cycle. The Baby Boomers will be exiting the workforce, decision-making and company/political governance. Water, cybersecurity, diversity, terrorism and a shift to a cashless society will be front and center.

GlobeSt.com: How do you view the long-term outlook for the office, industrial, retail and multifamily sectors?

Lee: Over the next decade, the multifamily sector will perform very well as the US shifts to a more rental-based society. The retail industry will undergo the most significant changes as the consumer increasingly utilizes the Internet for many of their consumption needs. The industrial sector will do well, but will shift to a more robotic environment. The office sector will struggle until 2020, or so. At that time, I expect the office sector to do very well since the demand for core assets in core markets will likely exceed supply. Every asset class will be dramatically different by 2025. The next 10 years will be exciting, challenging and full of opportunities for those willing to change.

GlobeSt.com: What are some of your most surprising predictions for the real estate industry by the year 2025?

Lee: In January of 2015, we published our “100 Predictions for the Real Estate Industry in 2025.” There are so many exciting predictions, it is difficult to identify the “most surprising.” However, here are some of our predictions that will impact everyone in the real estate industry.

• Between 25% and 35% of real estate firms that existed in 2015 will disappear.
• Online retail sales could render many retail centers irrelevant or in need of dramatic transformation.
• Law or accounting firms will become “certified underwriters,” enabling the globalization of transactions to accelerate.
• More than 10 million jobs will be lost to robotics.
• Homeownership will likely drop into the high 50% range.
• Women could compose 40% of the C-suite positions.
• The real estate industry will have a potential shortage of 15,000 to 25,000 “qualified” workers per year.
• Watch for legislation requiring all property managers to be licensed and certified.

SAN DIEGO—There are 26 primary real estate cycle drivers that are creating a transformative environment for our industry, CEL & Associates Inc.'s president and CEO Christopher Lee tells GlobeSt.com. Lee, a futurist and strategic advisor, will review the forces and changes that are and will be reshaping the real estate landscape at a “Breakfast at the BMC” lecture this Thursday, Sept. 15, as part of the series hosted by the Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate within the University of San Diego School of Business. Lee will share his insights on where we are in today's real estate cycle, when this cycle will end, and the drivers of the new cycle soon to begin, as well as insights into the long-term outlook for the office, industrial, retail and multifamily sectors and several of his 100 predictions for the real estate industry by the year 2025. We spoke exclusively with Lee for a preview of the event and a look at the topics he'll be covering.

GlobeSt.com: What are the main forces and changes that are reshaping the real estate landscape?

Lee: There are 26 major drivers that are reshaping the real estate industry including product and service innovation, the Internet of Everything, urbanization, demographic and market shifts, government policies and regulations, information transparency, changing capital markets, industry consolidation, a growing collaboration/sharing economy and changing domestic and global economies, along with other primary real estate cycle drivers that are creating a transformative environment. In addition, the perfect storm of megashifts and emerging new business drivers is resulting in the following four significant results: 1. new, dynamic real estate delivery systems emerge; 2. new collaborative business models are created; 3. new services and products are conceived and implemented; and 4. new stakeholder relationships emerge. While there is no one “main force” reshaping the real estate landscape, the combination of legacy exits, technology advancements, consolidation, innovation, big data and strategic capital partnering are having a significant impact.

GlobeSt.com: What's your viewpoint on where we are in the current real estate cycle and the drivers of the next cycle?

Lee: We are currently in the last 12 to 24 months of this real estate cycle. Our analytics indicate that this cycle will likely end around 2018. The actual timing could shift based on significant, unexpected events. The current real estate cycle, called the “Age of Capital, Asset & Entity Rebalancing,” will give way to a four-year period of transition before the next real estate cycle begins around 2023. The new cycle will be called the “Age of Globalization & Knowledge.” In the next cycle, technology will significantly impact every aspect of the real estate industry. There will be market winners and market losers. Growth will come from linkages, adjacencies and connectivity to life services, biotechnology, alternative energy, the Internet of Everything, healthcare, technology advancements, micro-farming, a shift to more environmentally sustainable building products and practices and artificial intelligence. There will be many disruptive technologies before and during the next cycle. The Baby Boomers will be exiting the workforce, decision-making and company/political governance. Water, cybersecurity, diversity, terrorism and a shift to a cashless society will be front and center.

GlobeSt.com: How do you view the long-term outlook for the office, industrial, retail and multifamily sectors?

Lee: Over the next decade, the multifamily sector will perform very well as the US shifts to a more rental-based society. The retail industry will undergo the most significant changes as the consumer increasingly utilizes the Internet for many of their consumption needs. The industrial sector will do well, but will shift to a more robotic environment. The office sector will struggle until 2020, or so. At that time, I expect the office sector to do very well since the demand for core assets in core markets will likely exceed supply. Every asset class will be dramatically different by 2025. The next 10 years will be exciting, challenging and full of opportunities for those willing to change.

GlobeSt.com: What are some of your most surprising predictions for the real estate industry by the year 2025?

Lee: In January of 2015, we published our “100 Predictions for the Real Estate Industry in 2025.” There are so many exciting predictions, it is difficult to identify the “most surprising.” However, here are some of our predictions that will impact everyone in the real estate industry.

• Between 25% and 35% of real estate firms that existed in 2015 will disappear.
• Online retail sales could render many retail centers irrelevant or in need of dramatic transformation.
• Law or accounting firms will become “certified underwriters,” enabling the globalization of transactions to accelerate.
• More than 10 million jobs will be lost to robotics.
• Homeownership will likely drop into the high 50% range.
• Women could compose 40% of the C-suite positions.
• The real estate industry will have a potential shortage of 15,000 to 25,000 “qualified” workers per year.
• Watch for legislation requiring all property managers to be licensed and certified.