In short, the EU is probably in for several more years of political upheaval, weak banks, distorted money markets, and an overall weak economy. There is a black swan circling, but we can neither be sure which swan it is, nor when it will choose to cause havoc. The currency is likely to fall further, and the UK is likely to continue to improve now that Brexit is seen as not so bad. That leaves the EU at even more risk of more drop outs. If you are invested in the EU, it is long past time to come home. You likely have unspent capital, and investing now would be irresponsible. Rushing to Europe became in vogue, but it never was a good idea. These problems were all easily forseeable, and intractable. Bring those uninvested funds home now.

It is obvious now that Europe's refugee influx is dramatically impacting its politics. German Chancellor Angela Merkel suffered a serious setback in her local election a couple of weeks ago. Throughout Europe the same political forces that pushed through Brexit are making big inroads thought Europe. In addition, just as in the UK, the people and business are getting fed up with Brussels dictating how they live and work. Lastly, the terror attacks have just begun. There will be more and they will claim a lot of lives. Put this alongside the UK now, and Brexit is starting to look like it is not a bad idea.

As time moves ahead, the UK not only has not collapsed, it is doing OK. Once Prime Minister Theresa May has completed her plans for the negotiations—and it is clear the sides are irreconcilable—it will be the UK that comes out the winner. Saying they will just force the banks to pick up and move from London is ridiculous. The city has been key to banking and finance for centuries, and it is not going away just to please the EU over refugees, which is what this is all about. Merkel and the EU know that if the UK shuts the door, everyone else will do the same. The politics of the EU change. May has already let it be known the refugee policy is now very clear under Brexit, and she is not going to accede to open borders. If she did she would be out of office as fast as Cameron was.

The Brits have already put policies and steps in place on taxes and on trade agreements, to make the UK a very favorable place to do business. The final straw was the stupid Apple tax issue, which will convince everyone they are at grave risk to have a headquarters operation in the EU, especially in tech. A few more idiotic decisions by the EU, and everyone will move the operations to the UK.

So what do we have? An EU with a massive Islamic influx that is a giant burden, a culture shifter, a jobs-taker and bringing more radical Islam terrorism. The people are already rising up against this. Muslim immigration has already changed France, the Netherlands and Belgium for the worse due to a massive lack of assimilation and major cultural differences, and growing acts of anti-Semitism. We have a banking system throughout the EU that is still weak and unable to fully support the needed growth. The ECB is running out of bonds to buy so may be forced to turn to listed stocks, further distorting markets. Negative rates create a mis-allocation of capital. This might temporarily be good for CRE due to ultra low rates, but at some point the price for the dislocations and distortions via monetary policy manipulation will be paid.

In short, the EU is probably in for several more years of political upheaval, weak banks, distorted money markets, and an overall weak economy. There is a black swan circling, but we can neither be sure which swan it is, nor when it will choose to cause havoc. The currency is likely to fall further, and the UK is likely to continue to improve now that Brexit is seen as not so bad. That leaves the EU at even more risk of more drop outs. If you are invested in the EU, it is long past time to come home. You likely have unspent capital, and investing now would be irresponsible. Rushing to Europe became in vogue, but it never was a good idea. These problems were all easily forseeable, and intractable. Bring those uninvested funds home now.