Ms. Real Estate Ms. Real Estate

SAN FRANCISCO—Wouldn't it be convenient if someone had clear, intelligent answers to most of your CRE-related questions? Problem solved. Nina J. Gruen, a.k.a. Ms. Real Estate, a.k.a. the principal sociologist overseeing market research and analysis at Gruen Gruen + Associates, is here to answer readers' questions.

Dear Ms. Real Estate,

I develop multifamily rentals, primarily in Southern California. I am currently beginning the entitlement process for an 84-unit mid-rise. The city is insisting that all of the 17,000-square-foot ground floor space be leased to retailers. The problem is vacancy rates for the type of convenience retail that would be expected to locate in my building have been on the increase. As a result, lease rates continue modest declines. If I were to be able to obtain retail tenants, it is likely to be a financially losing proposition by 2018, when I expect my building to be ready to lease. On the other hand, the market remains relatively robust fort the type of multi-family I propose building. What do to?

—Mixed Emotions Over My Mixed-Use.

Dear Mixed Emotions,

You present a rather common problem for residential developers in cities with high levels of demand for residential units and sparse demand for brick and mortar retail. There are two reasons why cities are frequently more enamored with the development of retail space, even though the requirement that such space accompany residential development often works as a drag on the economic incentive to build much needed housing. First, while blushingly denying they are practicing “fiscal zoning,” they believe that new residential development will induce more costs to the local treasury than it will produce revenue. Ms. Real Estate has seen this belief even in cases when the property and sales tax emanating from the occupants of market rate housing would actually equal or exceed the municipal costs of servicing the occupants. Too often, the prevalence of retail vacancy, evidence that the well of retail sales taxes and high assessed valuations is beginning to run dry, is ignored by the municipal decision makers. If you think the city you are working with is at all open minded, you may want to engage a consultant to measure the likely municipal cost benefits of retail and housing, including a realistic forecast of the unsatisfied demand for additional retail within your immediate market area. (No, Ms. Real Estate is not looking for work.)

The second reason often given for requiring ground floor retail is that the carbon footprint of the development will be smaller if tenants have nearby shopping, dining, personal services and other activities. There is, of course, some validity to this argument, and the best response to it is to provide some of what the city wants, if it is feasible to do so. Again, empty shops generate neither rent nor taxes, nor do they reduce carbon-emitting trips. Your forecast of obtainable retail demand should also help you determine whether providing retail space would be economically feasible and, of more interest to the city, would reduce vehicle miles travelled or merely replace some of the walks your tenants would take to other nearby vendors of goods and services.

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Nina J. Gruen

Nina J.Gruen has been the Principal Sociologist in charge of market research and analysis at Gruen Gruen + Associates (GG+A) since co-founding the firm in 1970. Ms. Gruen applies the analytical techniques of the social sciences to estimating the demand for real estate and to understanding the culture of the groups who determine the success of development, planning, and public policy decisions. She is a pioneer in synthesizing the results of behavioral research with quantitative time-series data to forecast market reactions. Market and community attitude evaluations and programming studies led by Nina Gruen have resulted in the development and redevelopment of many retail, office, industrial, visitor, and residential projects, varying in scale from a single building to large single- and mixed-use projects.