Daren Blomquist Blomquist: “It's not necessarily the politics of the district that are helping it, but this overriding trend we're seeing during this recovery of a return to urban walkable neighborhoods and a dearth of homebuilding out in the suburbs.”

IRVINE, CA—As GlobeSt.com recently reported, Democrat-controlled districts have been shown to have higher average home-price gains, but tax rates tend to be lower in Republican-controlled districts, according to a recent report from ATTOM Data. The report shows that among 2.4 million single-family homes purchased eight years ago, those in Democrat-controlled districts have gained an average $59,467 in value since purchase—a 21% return—compared to a $22,086 return representing a 10% ROI for homes in Republican-controlled districts.

In addition, the report revealed that homeowners in Republican-controlled districts are paying lower property taxes—$2,514 on average representing a 1.02 effective tax rate compared to $3,659 representing a 1.07 percent tax rate for homeowners in Democrat-controlled districts. Also, counter to the national trend, seven of the 11 battleground states in the 2016 presidential election have produced better ROI for homeowners in Republican-controlled districts.

We spoke exclusively with the firm's SVP Daren Blomquist about the research and what's behind it.

GlobeSt.com: Why do you think Democrat-controlled congressional districts fared better with housing values than Republican-controlled districts?

Blomquist: It's hard to know all the variables, but one variable pushing that trend is in this housing recovery, one of the hallmarks has been a return to urban walkable neighborhoods. Those have been the hot spots, especially for younger buyers, and that has been one of the driving trends. Those type of urban walkable neighborhoods tend to be more Democratic in political slant. In this analysis, that's really helped the Democratic districts to perform better in the last eight years than homes in Republican districts. The hallmark of the last housing boom was that the better-performing districts tended to be in suburban or even exurban areas. This time, those areas are performing OK, but they're not coming back as strongly as those other areas. It's not necessarily the politics of the district that are helping it, but this overriding trend we're seeing during this recovery of a return to urban walkable neighborhoods and a dearth of homebuilding out in the suburbs. Inventory is now back toward the center of cities as opposed to outside the cities.

GlobeSt.com: It would seem that if values were higher in Democrat-controlled districts, property taxes would also be higher. Is this why Republican-controlled districts fared better in property taxes, or are there other reasons?

Blomquist: There are other reasons actually. It's not just the dollar amount that's higher, but the actual property-tax rate that's higher in Democrat-controlled districts. It's not just a higher value of homes, but they're being taxed at a higher rate. That has more to do with politics there. Republican-controlled districts would be more averse to higher taxes and being saddled with them, so that would make sense, I think, that the political bent in those districts is lower taxes. Still, the difference was small, with a tax rate of 1.02% in Republican districts versus 1.07% in Democrat districts.

GlobeSt.com: Can we expect more of the same trends after the election?

Blomquist: Yes, I think who wins the election could have some impact on overall housing trends. You would think if Trump wins there would be a slant toward less regulation on housing, which may open up some more inventory that would help some of the Republican districts. Overall, I think this trend will continue. This is about more than politics, this trend toward back toward the city. It's not uniform in every single market, but it is a pretty strong driving force in this recovery. Even within markets like Denver and Philadelphia, urban central counties tend to be doing better and tend to have homes in more Democratic districts there, and Philadelphia County outperformed Montgomery County, which is more Republican. It reinforces the national narrative when you start looking at these cities.

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Carrie Rossenfeld

Carrie Rossenfeld is a reporter for the San Diego and Orange County markets on GlobeSt.com and a contributor to Real Estate Forum. She was a trade-magazine and newsletter editor in New York City before moving to Southern California to become a freelance writer and editor for magazines, books and websites. Rossenfeld has written extensively on topics including commercial real estate, running a medical practice, intellectual-property licensing and giftware. She has edited books about profiting from real estate and has ghostwritten a book about starting a home-based business.