By the time you read this it will possibly be over, but maybe it is just Tuesday, or maybe Wednesday and the recount is underway. My best guess is Donald Trump wins by 2 electoral votes by taking one in southern Maine giving him 271 and the Republicans hold the Senate. But as of today, before the election, nobody really knows despite polls and pundits who have been almost universally wrong this election cycle. If Hillary Clinton wins there will be a recount somewhere, and if Trump wins there may also be one. We may not know the final outcome until later in the week.
If Trump does win the Democrats will go to any length to filibuster and obstruct everything. The right wing will do the same if she wins. If Trump does win and the Republicans do hold both houses then he has a big advantage if he can come to terms with Speaker of the House Paul Ryan—Another battle the country does not need. Trump will for sure let the FBI loose with no restraints on the foundation and the missing e mails, and in the end she might go to jail. If they pressure Huma Abedin to talk, which is likely. They may all go to jail, and we will have Watergate II.
Whatever Trump does if he wins, you can count on the press to attack it, and criticize almost everything. Demonstrations will pop up on campuses and in cities, and it will be messy for quite awhile. If she wins, the House opens numerous investigations and the force the FBI to come forward with all the new emails and other information on the Foundation. At some point they will start impeachment proceedings. It will be really ugly. Nothing will get done and no Clinton appointee gets to the Supreme Court. Either way we are in for ugly politics and media coverage for several years.
The good news will be Trump will push through tax reform, possibly an infrastructure program that is real, not the Obama make-believe program. Very importantly for CRE, Trump will get rid of the radicals in EPA, Labor and Justice. Regulations will disappear on many things, and banks will be freed up to make loans again. CRE and banks will be able to go back to functioning at a cost that will once again enable more projects to get built. The bad news is Trump is nuts, and such a narcissist that there is no telling how many really bad things he will do which could offset the good ones. If he really starts to try to shut down trade, and to push to get Ryan out of power or to set up confrontations with Republicans in the Senate, then lots of bad things can happen.
If Hillary wins we get a lot more taxes for people like us, far more regulation of banks, EPA, and Labor issues. All very bad. Elizabeth Warren gets to have a say in financial regulation in some fashion, and that is disastrous. While Hilary may seem more stable, she will be under relentless investigation and pressure and the Republicans will agree to nothing, especially nominations to the Court so what actually gets implemented is hard to judge, but it will not be good for CRE.
Whoever wins it will be bad for four years. The swamp dwellers there now will be desperate to hang on if Trump wins, and the Hilary has got to jail crowd will be in full throat. If Trump wins it will, in his twisted mind, validate his ego, and he will be really insufferable, unable to be reasoned with, and unpredictable.
The answer many of my friends have is vote only down ballot and skip the top. Whatever happens now is the time to stay safe and wait to see what happens. We will know a lot more by spring, and by summer it will be clear, although maybe awful.
Joel Ross is Principal at Citadel Realty Advisors. The views expressed here are the author's own.
By the time you read this it will possibly be over, but maybe it is just Tuesday, or maybe Wednesday and the recount is underway. My best guess is Donald Trump wins by 2 electoral votes by taking one in southern Maine giving him 271 and the Republicans hold the Senate. But as of today, before the election, nobody really knows despite polls and pundits who have been almost universally wrong this election cycle. If Hillary Clinton wins there will be a recount somewhere, and if Trump wins there may also be one. We may not know the final outcome until later in the week.
If Trump does win the Democrats will go to any length to filibuster and obstruct everything. The right wing will do the same if she wins. If Trump does win and the Republicans do hold both houses then he has a big advantage if he can come to terms with Speaker of the House Paul Ryan—Another battle the country does not need. Trump will for sure let the FBI loose with no restraints on the foundation and the missing e mails, and in the end she might go to jail. If they pressure Huma Abedin to talk, which is likely. They may all go to jail, and we will have Watergate II.
Whatever Trump does if he wins, you can count on the press to attack it, and criticize almost everything. Demonstrations will pop up on campuses and in cities, and it will be messy for quite awhile. If she wins, the House opens numerous investigations and the force the FBI to come forward with all the new emails and other information on the Foundation. At some point they will start impeachment proceedings. It will be really ugly. Nothing will get done and no Clinton appointee gets to the Supreme Court. Either way we are in for ugly politics and media coverage for several years.
The good news will be Trump will push through tax reform, possibly an infrastructure program that is real, not the Obama make-believe program. Very importantly for CRE, Trump will get rid of the radicals in EPA, Labor and Justice. Regulations will disappear on many things, and banks will be freed up to make loans again. CRE and banks will be able to go back to functioning at a cost that will once again enable more projects to get built. The bad news is Trump is nuts, and such a narcissist that there is no telling how many really bad things he will do which could offset the good ones. If he really starts to try to shut down trade, and to push to get Ryan out of power or to set up confrontations with Republicans in the Senate, then lots of bad things can happen.
If Hillary wins we get a lot more taxes for people like us, far more regulation of banks, EPA, and Labor issues. All very bad. Elizabeth Warren gets to have a say in financial regulation in some fashion, and that is disastrous. While Hilary may seem more stable, she will be under relentless investigation and pressure and the Republicans will agree to nothing, especially nominations to the Court so what actually gets implemented is hard to judge, but it will not be good for CRE.
Whoever wins it will be bad for four years. The swamp dwellers there now will be desperate to hang on if Trump wins, and the Hilary has got to jail crowd will be in full throat. If Trump wins it will, in his twisted mind, validate his ego, and he will be really insufferable, unable to be reasoned with, and unpredictable.
The answer many of my friends have is vote only down ballot and skip the top. Whatever happens now is the time to stay safe and wait to see what happens. We will know a lot more by spring, and by summer it will be clear, although maybe awful.
Joel Ross is Principal at Citadel Realty Advisors. The views expressed here are the author's own.
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Joel Ross
Joel Ross began his career in Wall St as an investment banker in 1965, handling corporate advisory matters for a variety of clients. During the seventies he was CEO of North American operations for a UK based conglomerate, and sat on the parent company board. In 1981, he began his own firm handling leveraged buyouts, investment banking and real estate financing. In 1984 Ross began providing investment banking services and arranging financing for real estate transactions with his own firm, Ross Properties, Inc. In 1993 Ross and a partner, Lexington Mortgage, created the first Wall St hotel CMBS program in conjunction with Nomura. They went on to develop a similar CMBS program for another major Wall St investment bank and for five leading hotel companies. Lexington, in partnership with Mr. Ross established a hotel mortgage bank table funded by an investment bank, and making all CMBS hotel loans on their behalf. In 1999 he formed Citadel Realty Advisors as a successor to Ross Properties Corp., focusing on real estate investment banking in the US, UK and Paris. He has closed over $3.0 billion of financings for office, hotel, retail, land and multifamily projects. Ross is also a founder of Market Street Investors, a brownfield land development company, and has been involved in the acquisition of notes on defaulted loans and various REO assets in conjunction with several major investors. Ross was an adjunct professor in the graduate program at the NYU Hotel School. He is a member of Urban Land Institute and was a member of the leadership of his ULI council. In 1999, he conceived and co-authored with PricewaterhouseCoopers, the Hotel Mortgage Performance Report, a major study of hotel mortgage default rates.
