President-elect Trump

WASHINGTON, DC–Prior to the election, some fund managers had been skittish about the possibility of Republican candidate Donald Trump winning the race for the US presidency. However, views appear to have quickly shifted since then, at least according to a survey of 182 alternative assets fund managers by the London based consultancy Preqin.

The survey found that more than half, or 53%, of fund managers think that the election results will be positive for alternative assets in the US, while just 12% think it will be negative. The reason for the optimism is the expected reduction in corporate tax (which 73% of manager think will be positive) and proposed infrastructure spending, which was cited as positive by 62% of managers.

Some Concerns

The responses were not uniformly rosy: the majority of surveyed managers believe that withdrawing from trade deals will be negative, while 55% believe that changes to the taxation of carried interest will adversely affect them.

Also alt asset fund managers with global holdings were less optimistic: 25% of fund managers think that the industry outside the US will be negatively affected, with 22% expecting a beneficial effect.

And in what looks to be a double-edged sword fund managers also cited the uncertainty surrounding Trump's policy proposals. Some managers suggested that potential impacts on debt rates and securing investor capital might be negative, but others felt that market volatility might serve to benefit alternative investments, and reduce recent correlation in returns between the industry and more conventional financial markets.

Foreign Capital May Stay Away

The survey also shows that some alternative investment managers believe that they are unlikely to secure more capital from investors outside the US as a result of the election. One firm surveyed stated: “China-based investors could be reticent [to invest]” while another said: “political uncertainty will lead to foreign investors staying away from the US”.

Around a quarter of private capital firms believe they will secure less capital from investors, double the proportion of hedge fund managers.

Changing Trends for Real Estate?

Although the survey didn't get into specific asset types, previous studies by Preqin have highlighted the strong appetite private equity and funds investors have for real estate investments right now.

In one recent report it noted that only 11% of private equity investors felt that their investments in private equity, infrastructure or real estate failed to meet expectations. Moreover, over a third (36%) of investors in real estate felt their performance objectives were exceeded — the highest proportion of any asset class.

Perhaps, given Trump's roots in the real estate industry, that good feeling will continue as his presidency commences.

President-elect Trump

WASHINGTON, DC–Prior to the election, some fund managers had been skittish about the possibility of Republican candidate Donald Trump winning the race for the US presidency. However, views appear to have quickly shifted since then, at least according to a survey of 182 alternative assets fund managers by the London based consultancy Preqin.

The survey found that more than half, or 53%, of fund managers think that the election results will be positive for alternative assets in the US, while just 12% think it will be negative. The reason for the optimism is the expected reduction in corporate tax (which 73% of manager think will be positive) and proposed infrastructure spending, which was cited as positive by 62% of managers.

Some Concerns

The responses were not uniformly rosy: the majority of surveyed managers believe that withdrawing from trade deals will be negative, while 55% believe that changes to the taxation of carried interest will adversely affect them.

Also alt asset fund managers with global holdings were less optimistic: 25% of fund managers think that the industry outside the US will be negatively affected, with 22% expecting a beneficial effect.

And in what looks to be a double-edged sword fund managers also cited the uncertainty surrounding Trump's policy proposals. Some managers suggested that potential impacts on debt rates and securing investor capital might be negative, but others felt that market volatility might serve to benefit alternative investments, and reduce recent correlation in returns between the industry and more conventional financial markets.

Foreign Capital May Stay Away

The survey also shows that some alternative investment managers believe that they are unlikely to secure more capital from investors outside the US as a result of the election. One firm surveyed stated: “China-based investors could be reticent [to invest]” while another said: “political uncertainty will lead to foreign investors staying away from the US”.

Around a quarter of private capital firms believe they will secure less capital from investors, double the proportion of hedge fund managers.

Changing Trends for Real Estate?

Although the survey didn't get into specific asset types, previous studies by Preqin have highlighted the strong appetite private equity and funds investors have for real estate investments right now.

In one recent report it noted that only 11% of private equity investors felt that their investments in private equity, infrastructure or real estate failed to meet expectations. Moreover, over a third (36%) of investors in real estate felt their performance objectives were exceeded — the highest proportion of any asset class.

Perhaps, given Trump's roots in the real estate industry, that good feeling will continue as his presidency commences.

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Erika Morphy

Erika Morphy has been writing about commercial real estate at GlobeSt.com for more than ten years, covering the capital markets, the Mid-Atlantic region and national topics. She's a nerd so favorite examples of the former include accounting standards, Basel III and what Congress is brewing.