Joel Ross

Francois Fillon just won the primary in France. He was not predicted to win. That leaves he and Marine Le Pen for the general election. Already the polls and pundits got it totally wrong. This Sunday is the Italian election, which is about revising the constitution so that Italy might finally have a functioning government. There is a chance it will go down to defeat. If that happens, another of the populist parties might take over, and Italy would then be on the list of real exit possibilities from the EU. Austria votes soon after, and the probability now is that the far right government will prevail. If so they will team up with Hungary to seal the borders form any further Muslim immigration. Then comes France and possibly Le Pen, although with Fillon winning his primary, her chance has lessened. Later still is Germany, and by that time Trump will have been in office for many months. Depending on what actions he takes regarding trade and Russia, Merkel might be defeated. By mid-2017 we could have a complete unwinding of the status quo that has ruled Europe for decades. If that were to happen, the EU collapses. Or there could be wins for some of the right wing candidates, and the EU will be put in a situation where nothing can get done because it takes a unanimous vote to do anything major.

If Trump is successful in passing revisions to many of Obama's policies, if he makes major foreign policy changes, and if the US economy starts to improve, then there will be major shifts in European politics to follow America and elect a non-establishment leaders. All of the ifs are highly possible for Trump over the next six months, and so it is likely his actions to overturn the leftward shift Obama brought will be mostly successful.

Draghi has stated this past week that the potential for political turmoil is the biggest risk Europe faces in 2017. It is possible everything could be upended. Then it will be very interesting to see what Trump does in terms of foreign policy and financial; markets to provide leadership in a world of confusion. It will also be interesting to watch how Putin tries to take advantage of the confusion and how he uses propaganda to push Europeans to move to where he wishes. He is already influencing events by using news stories planted strategically as he did with false stories in the US on Facebook. He will also use economic pressure through withholding gas during the winter or ratcheting up its price. It is impossible to forecast where all of this goes over the next year, but you can count on it being very messy and uncertain for a long time. Risk in Europe is huge right now. There is no possible way to reasonably forecast the outcome of any new investment made there, although chances are high it will not be good.

Trump has seemingly instilled a strong sense of optimism in a variety of businesses in the US and surely in the stock market. He will get Congress to cooperate, meaning massive shifts in Obamacare, regulation, defense and infrastructure spend. Interest rates will continue to rise, and there will be a major shift at the state level to complement what is done in Washington now that the Republicans control the larger number of states. We are likely at the end of an era of liberal doctrine, liberal laws, liberal executive orders and left wing foreign policy.

The teachers unions are now toast. Trump and his education secretary are going to completely change how education works in America and the union and media will scream, but poor kids will finally have a chance to get a real education. This will be a major improvement over the decades of bad education policy, union payoffs to legislators, and kids having their lives ruined by the teachers unions. It will also possibly end the disastrous redistribution of local tax dollars to the teachers and will possibly make a start to clean up the pension disaster looming now in many states.

With very strong people at Defense, Treasury, Education and hopefully State, and a President who is not afraid to walk from the table in a negotiation, we have some hope of totally undoing decades of bad domestic policy and anti-cop, pro-PC, and very weak foreign policy actions. Maybe even colleges will come to realize the First Amendment—which Madison so elegantly authored—is also applicable to campuses. The ultimate insanity was recently when a small group of left wing students demanded that Thomas Jefferson's writings and words never be uttered on the campus he founded. It is similar to what happened at Princeton regarding Woodrow Wilson.

We are raising a group of college kids who have no appreciation of the Constitution and our history and unless they learn to respect these things, the country will be faced with ongoing protests and disruption every time some group decides it does not get what it wants. The move now by Stein and Clinton to demand a recount is just the sort of absurd behavior that has to end. The world is going to be very dangerous for the next couple of years, and we need to be united and strong to deal with what is going to come.

Joel Ross

Francois Fillon just won the primary in France. He was not predicted to win. That leaves he and Marine Le Pen for the general election. Already the polls and pundits got it totally wrong. This Sunday is the Italian election, which is about revising the constitution so that Italy might finally have a functioning government. There is a chance it will go down to defeat. If that happens, another of the populist parties might take over, and Italy would then be on the list of real exit possibilities from the EU. Austria votes soon after, and the probability now is that the far right government will prevail. If so they will team up with Hungary to seal the borders form any further Muslim immigration. Then comes France and possibly Le Pen, although with Fillon winning his primary, her chance has lessened. Later still is Germany, and by that time Trump will have been in office for many months. Depending on what actions he takes regarding trade and Russia, Merkel might be defeated. By mid-2017 we could have a complete unwinding of the status quo that has ruled Europe for decades. If that were to happen, the EU collapses. Or there could be wins for some of the right wing candidates, and the EU will be put in a situation where nothing can get done because it takes a unanimous vote to do anything major.

If Trump is successful in passing revisions to many of Obama's policies, if he makes major foreign policy changes, and if the US economy starts to improve, then there will be major shifts in European politics to follow America and elect a non-establishment leaders. All of the ifs are highly possible for Trump over the next six months, and so it is likely his actions to overturn the leftward shift Obama brought will be mostly successful.

Draghi has stated this past week that the potential for political turmoil is the biggest risk Europe faces in 2017. It is possible everything could be upended. Then it will be very interesting to see what Trump does in terms of foreign policy and financial; markets to provide leadership in a world of confusion. It will also be interesting to watch how Putin tries to take advantage of the confusion and how he uses propaganda to push Europeans to move to where he wishes. He is already influencing events by using news stories planted strategically as he did with false stories in the US on Facebook. He will also use economic pressure through withholding gas during the winter or ratcheting up its price. It is impossible to forecast where all of this goes over the next year, but you can count on it being very messy and uncertain for a long time. Risk in Europe is huge right now. There is no possible way to reasonably forecast the outcome of any new investment made there, although chances are high it will not be good.

Trump has seemingly instilled a strong sense of optimism in a variety of businesses in the US and surely in the stock market. He will get Congress to cooperate, meaning massive shifts in Obamacare, regulation, defense and infrastructure spend. Interest rates will continue to rise, and there will be a major shift at the state level to complement what is done in Washington now that the Republicans control the larger number of states. We are likely at the end of an era of liberal doctrine, liberal laws, liberal executive orders and left wing foreign policy.

The teachers unions are now toast. Trump and his education secretary are going to completely change how education works in America and the union and media will scream, but poor kids will finally have a chance to get a real education. This will be a major improvement over the decades of bad education policy, union payoffs to legislators, and kids having their lives ruined by the teachers unions. It will also possibly end the disastrous redistribution of local tax dollars to the teachers and will possibly make a start to clean up the pension disaster looming now in many states.

With very strong people at Defense, Treasury, Education and hopefully State, and a President who is not afraid to walk from the table in a negotiation, we have some hope of totally undoing decades of bad domestic policy and anti-cop, pro-PC, and very weak foreign policy actions. Maybe even colleges will come to realize the First Amendment—which Madison so elegantly authored—is also applicable to campuses. The ultimate insanity was recently when a small group of left wing students demanded that Thomas Jefferson's writings and words never be uttered on the campus he founded. It is similar to what happened at Princeton regarding Woodrow Wilson.

We are raising a group of college kids who have no appreciation of the Constitution and our history and unless they learn to respect these things, the country will be faced with ongoing protests and disruption every time some group decides it does not get what it wants. The move now by Stein and Clinton to demand a recount is just the sort of absurd behavior that has to end. The world is going to be very dangerous for the next couple of years, and we need to be united and strong to deal with what is going to come.

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Joel Ross

Joel Ross began his career in Wall St as an investment banker in 1965, handling corporate advisory matters for a variety of clients. During the seventies he was CEO of North American operations for a UK based conglomerate, and sat on the parent company board. In 1981, he began his own firm handling leveraged buyouts, investment banking and real estate financing. In 1984 Ross began providing investment banking services and arranging financing for real estate transactions with his own firm, Ross Properties, Inc. In 1993 Ross and a partner, Lexington Mortgage, created the first Wall St hotel CMBS program in conjunction with Nomura. They went on to develop a similar CMBS program for another major Wall St investment bank and for five leading hotel companies. Lexington, in partnership with Mr. Ross established a hotel mortgage bank table funded by an investment bank, and making all CMBS hotel loans on their behalf. In 1999 he formed Citadel Realty Advisors as a successor to Ross Properties Corp., focusing on real estate investment banking in the US, UK and Paris. He has closed over $3.0 billion of financings for office, hotel, retail, land and multifamily projects. Ross is also a founder of Market Street Investors, a brownfield land development company, and has been involved in the acquisition of notes on defaulted loans and various REO assets in conjunction with several major investors. Ross was an adjunct professor in the graduate program at the NYU Hotel School. He is a member of Urban Land Institute and was a member of the leadership of his ULI council. In 1999, he conceived and co-authored with PricewaterhouseCoopers, the Hotel Mortgage Performance Report, a major study of hotel mortgage default rates.

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