MIAMI—With Donald Trump heading to the White House in January, there is no shortage of experts predicting how banking, real estate, and the overall economic climate could shift as a result. Some bankers are predicting a seismic global mind shift will be immediate while actual change will take time, and the toss-up battleground State of Florida may feel the greatest impact.
According to a recent Federal Reserve survey of loan officers, US and foreign banks alike have made commercial real estate lending standards more stringent during a period when higher demand for commercial and land development loans have been reported. After years of near-zero interest rates, the tightening standards may be due a concern of a potential bubble in the sector and wanting to avoid moving into a commercial real estate crisis similar to the last.
Will real-estate-mogul-turned-President-Elect Trump influence this trend moving into 2017 and onward? How will this alter the economic landscape of a state that relies so heavily on real estate growth? GlobeSt.com asked FirstBank Florida's senior vice president and Commercial Banking Head, Mahesh Pattabhiraman, for his thoughts.
“Without yet having a complete understanding of the policies that will come into effect with the new administration, we know that President-Elect Trump's messages focus on pro-growth,” Pattabhiraman tells GlobeSt.com. “A growing economy will, of course, have very positive effects on both commercial lending and foreign investment.”
Pattabhiraman notes that interest rates are expected to grow, and a lack of economic growth to facilitate increasing rates will be negative for the commercial lending sector as commercial activity will gradually decrease. On the other hand, he says, a growing economy as Trump has promised will come with an emphasis on infrastructure, especially in a top state for infrastructure funding such as Florida.
“Government funding for infrastructure improvements will create more construction projects, mass employment, and benefit ancillary businesses, all of which will increase commercial lending,” Pattabhiraman says. “Additionally, improved infrastructure will further propel the economy by increasing productivity and efficiency and decreasing transportation costs throughout the state.”
Where foreign investment activity is concerned, Pattabhiraman expects we may see it slow down at first simply due to negative perceptions lingering from the elections and the uncertainty that comes with the transition of political administration. But that appears to be only temporary.
“With growth being a main priority for the President-Elect, trade will improve and ultimately result in an uptick in foreign investments,” he says. “Florida, affectionately known as the Gateway to the Americas, will be one of the states to benefit the most from improved trade policies with the US still viewed as the safest place to invest.”
MIAMI—With Donald Trump heading to the White House in January, there is no shortage of experts predicting how banking, real estate, and the overall economic climate could shift as a result. Some bankers are predicting a seismic global mind shift will be immediate while actual change will take time, and the toss-up battleground State of Florida may feel the greatest impact.
According to a recent Federal Reserve survey of loan officers, US and foreign banks alike have made commercial real estate lending standards more stringent during a period when higher demand for commercial and land development loans have been reported. After years of near-zero interest rates, the tightening standards may be due a concern of a potential bubble in the sector and wanting to avoid moving into a commercial real estate crisis similar to the last.
Will real-estate-mogul-turned-President-Elect Trump influence this trend moving into 2017 and onward? How will this alter the economic landscape of a state that relies so heavily on real estate growth? GlobeSt.com asked FirstBank Florida's senior vice president and Commercial Banking Head, Mahesh Pattabhiraman, for his thoughts.
“Without yet having a complete understanding of the policies that will come into effect with the new administration, we know that President-Elect Trump's messages focus on pro-growth,” Pattabhiraman tells GlobeSt.com. “A growing economy will, of course, have very positive effects on both commercial lending and foreign investment.”
Pattabhiraman notes that interest rates are expected to grow, and a lack of economic growth to facilitate increasing rates will be negative for the commercial lending sector as commercial activity will gradually decrease. On the other hand, he says, a growing economy as Trump has promised will come with an emphasis on infrastructure, especially in a top state for infrastructure funding such as Florida.
“Government funding for infrastructure improvements will create more construction projects, mass employment, and benefit ancillary businesses, all of which will increase commercial lending,” Pattabhiraman says. “Additionally, improved infrastructure will further propel the economy by increasing productivity and efficiency and decreasing transportation costs throughout the state.”
Where foreign investment activity is concerned, Pattabhiraman expects we may see it slow down at first simply due to negative perceptions lingering from the elections and the uncertainty that comes with the transition of political administration. But that appears to be only temporary.
“With growth being a main priority for the President-Elect, trade will improve and ultimately result in an uptick in foreign investments,” he says. “Florida, affectionately known as the Gateway to the Americas, will be one of the states to benefit the most from improved trade policies with the US still viewed as the safest place to invest.”
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