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CALABASAS, CA—We know it will come—another hike on interest rates. But as the latest research blog from Marcus & Millichap notes, the “path is clear” for a Federal Reserve benchmark move by the end of December in the wake of the latest round of positive monthly employment numbers.

Marcus & Millichap's latest research blog states that the November gain of 178,000 jobs not only pushed the unemployment rate down to 4.6% but also puts the US on track to hit a 2016 total of 2.2 million jobs added this year. It should be noted that that 4.6% is what M&M calls the lowest of the cycle; ditto the 9.3% under-employment level. November's job-gain winners were professional and business-services workers, at 63,000 positions filled.

The shrinking unemployment number is applying upward pressure elsewhere. The report predicts we'll see the Fed benchmark lending rate increase later this month. And apparently that could set the stage for similar activity next year. “A more aggressive pace of rate increases could ensue in 2017,” says the blog, “as the central bank monitors the effects of the new administration's policies on economic trends and inflation.”

Interest rates aren't the only numbers on the rise however, and jobs means leasing. Technical services payrolls, according to M&M, had a positive impact on office performance this year and, much like interest rates, this bodes well for increases in 2017.

“The US office vacancy rate is on track to fall to 14.4% and an additional decline is anticipated next year,” says the blog. “A missing element of the current improvement in office property performance is financial services employment, which remains below the pre-recession peak even after adding 145,000 positions so far this year.”

Multifamily will also benefit, the report notes, and the vacancy rate could decline to 3.8 percent. “Payroll additions and rising wages support increased household formation, helping to maintain strong demand trends and low vacancy in the US apartment sector,” the blog reports.

For the full research report, click here.

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John Salustri

John Salustri has covered the commercial real estate industry for nearly 25 years. He was the founding editor of GlobeSt.com, and is a four-time recipient of the Excellence in Journalism award from the National Association of Real Estate Editors.

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