Deficit It's no surprise that government deficits have ballooned under Republican administrations, including Reagan and the Bushes, while declining under recent Democratic administrations. Low-tax incented economic growth has never offset the gap created from resulting lowered tax receipts. If interest rates ever rise to anywhere near their mean, the impact on US debt service costs would be entirely budget busting. That's one of the reasons the Fed has been keeping interest rates at or near historic lows, even considering this month's rather modest rate hike.

Deregulation Bank stocks revive in hopes for defanging Dodd Frank and various industries look forward to less government restrictions from pollution controls and labor laws. But the overall stock market has had one of its best runs during the past eight years and the economy has recovered from a financial meltdown precipitated by behaviors Dodd Frank was designed to stop and has.

Health Care The whole Obamacare controversy has been totally overblown for political effect. Only about 20 million Americans are covered by Obamacare—most of whom would be uninsured otherwise at a huge burden to the overall healthcare system when they inevitably need critical care. Meanwhile, a greater expense burden for employer based insurance, which covers most Americans, has been shifted to workers as companies put in place higher deductible plans and/or plans where employees pay part of the premiums. Studies strongly suggest that health care cost increases have slowed since the Affordable Care Act was passed. And few politicians want to let health insurers get away with turning away people for pre-existing conditions and setting lifetime benefit caps or taking young adults off parents' coverage. Any repeal of Obamacare promises to upset the healthcare marketplace with the Trump administration/GOP Congress having no sound alternative plan. And will Republicans try to follow through as promised with reducing Medicare coverage as more baby boomers become eligible? It could be chaos.

Aging population The potential of reduced medical coverage would compound the worrisome state of many seniors, who have meager savings and no pensions. 401K programs (less than 50% of Americans even have them) have not adequately replaced company defined benefit pension plans to provide satisfactory levels of post-retirement income. At the same time, states and local governments will increasingly find themselves unable to fund public employee pension and medical plans without risking bankruptcy or at least severe financial crisis. The plight of aging Americans is a looming nightmare, hearkening to Depression times. Who is paying attention?

Jobs The country is near full employment with the unemployment rate at well under 5%. But many workers are getting paid less with reduced benefits as corporate profits concentrate up the executive food chain and to shareholders. Workers have less to spend and save, and feel they are falling behind despite a reasonably good economy—this angst helped propel the Trump victory. Separate from moving jobs overseas or to Mexico (Carrier, for example), many expanding multinationals simply establish offshore operations without cutting jobs here so they can rely less on a more amply compensated US workforce. These companies have lobbied Congress effectively for years to protect their offshore profits from unfavorable taxation, which Trump promises to end, but will need corporate friendly GOP leaders help to enact. And most US-based manufacturing jobs have been lost to robots and automation right here at home, not offshoring. Folks in Rust Belt states also suffer from job transfers to Right to Work states where non-union wage and benefit rates are much lower. Not coincidentally, Mike Pence's Indiana has passed right-to-work legislation that may attract new jobs to the state, but at those hard-to-stomach lower wage/benefit rates. And the new Administration promises to keep the minimum wage at current poverty inducing levels. Fast food workers are barely able to afford the Big Macs they serve.

Trade Corporate America and Republicans have been traditionally more pro trade than Democrats. Playing hardball with companies and threatening tariffs could dislocate global supply chains, negatively impacting existing US jobs and raising consumer costs, while hurting exporters. Historically trade disputes have created global tensions and led to unintended consequences and conflicts like trade wars and even real wars. Industrial property owners, who have oriented strategies to major US ports and international airports, could face the most immediate blowback.

World Peace Russia gets more aggressive after apparent meddling in the recent election, Europe tears apart over an influx of refugees escaping the Middle East dystopia, China deals with a struggling economy and underlying social unrest, and the new President surrounds himself with generals, sounding combative about ISIS and isolationist at the same time. It's all a bit unnerving.

Energy The world looks for US leadership on climate change and markets gravitate to renewables and natural gas, but Trump appears ready to abdicate, embracing coal mining and oil drilling. Will it make a difference if Mar-a-Lago floods out from rising tides in South Florida before the end of the President's term?

Fake News What can you believe and who do you believe?

Talk about uncertainty—we have it for real this time. And that's not good.

“Uncertainty” was the excuse many business leaders used following the last two Presidential elections for not hiring or investing in expansions. You don't hear as much about uncertainty this time from business leaders and investors. But the incoming Trump team has suggested a mass of policy pronouncements and contradictory rhetoric that collectively scream out the word and should unsettle markets, including real estate, just not yet.

Spending Trump promises to increase spending for military and infrastructure substantially, but the Republicans who control Congress have been hell bent on deficit reduction for years. What will give?

Budget Cutting Government safety net programs appear in GOP crosshairs, but reducing Medicare, Medicaid, and housing programs to offset military/infrastructure increases will create significant hardships and further dislocation for substantial numbers of impoverished Americans as well as folks in the struggling middle class, many concentrated in states which voted for the President elect.

Taxes Suggested federal tax policy “reform” heavily favors the country's most affluent, again at the expense of the poor, and independent studies suggest that the traditional GOP trickle-down approach will significantly expand future deficits, while potentially pushing up taxes (real estate, sales, gas, and income) at state and local levels to fill in the gap for necessary services and programs. That hits the middle class directly in the pocket book and may offset any gains from lower federal taxes. The alternative for local governments is to cut services and programs, including support for schools. Real estate owners shouldn't be happy about such prospects.

Deficit It's no surprise that government deficits have ballooned under Republican administrations, including Reagan and the Bushes, while declining under recent Democratic administrations. Low-tax incented economic growth has never offset the gap created from resulting lowered tax receipts. If interest rates ever rise to anywhere near their mean, the impact on US debt service costs would be entirely budget busting. That's one of the reasons the Fed has been keeping interest rates at or near historic lows, even considering this month's rather modest rate hike.

Deregulation Bank stocks revive in hopes for defanging Dodd Frank and various industries look forward to less government restrictions from pollution controls and labor laws. But the overall stock market has had one of its best runs during the past eight years and the economy has recovered from a financial meltdown precipitated by behaviors Dodd Frank was designed to stop and has.

Health Care The whole Obamacare controversy has been totally overblown for political effect. Only about 20 million Americans are covered by Obamacare—most of whom would be uninsured otherwise at a huge burden to the overall healthcare system when they inevitably need critical care. Meanwhile, a greater expense burden for employer based insurance, which covers most Americans, has been shifted to workers as companies put in place higher deductible plans and/or plans where employees pay part of the premiums. Studies strongly suggest that health care cost increases have slowed since the Affordable Care Act was passed. And few politicians want to let health insurers get away with turning away people for pre-existing conditions and setting lifetime benefit caps or taking young adults off parents' coverage. Any repeal of Obamacare promises to upset the healthcare marketplace with the Trump administration/GOP Congress having no sound alternative plan. And will Republicans try to follow through as promised with reducing Medicare coverage as more baby boomers become eligible? It could be chaos.

Aging population The potential of reduced medical coverage would compound the worrisome state of many seniors, who have meager savings and no pensions. 401K programs (less than 50% of Americans even have them) have not adequately replaced company defined benefit pension plans to provide satisfactory levels of post-retirement income. At the same time, states and local governments will increasingly find themselves unable to fund public employee pension and medical plans without risking bankruptcy or at least severe financial crisis. The plight of aging Americans is a looming nightmare, hearkening to Depression times. Who is paying attention?

Jobs The country is near full employment with the unemployment rate at well under 5%. But many workers are getting paid less with reduced benefits as corporate profits concentrate up the executive food chain and to shareholders. Workers have less to spend and save, and feel they are falling behind despite a reasonably good economy—this angst helped propel the Trump victory. Separate from moving jobs overseas or to Mexico (Carrier, for example), many expanding multinationals simply establish offshore operations without cutting jobs here so they can rely less on a more amply compensated US workforce. These companies have lobbied Congress effectively for years to protect their offshore profits from unfavorable taxation, which Trump promises to end, but will need corporate friendly GOP leaders help to enact. And most US-based manufacturing jobs have been lost to robots and automation right here at home, not offshoring. Folks in Rust Belt states also suffer from job transfers to Right to Work states where non-union wage and benefit rates are much lower. Not coincidentally, Mike Pence's Indiana has passed right-to-work legislation that may attract new jobs to the state, but at those hard-to-stomach lower wage/benefit rates. And the new Administration promises to keep the minimum wage at current poverty inducing levels. Fast food workers are barely able to afford the Big Macs they serve.

Trade Corporate America and Republicans have been traditionally more pro trade than Democrats. Playing hardball with companies and threatening tariffs could dislocate global supply chains, negatively impacting existing US jobs and raising consumer costs, while hurting exporters. Historically trade disputes have created global tensions and led to unintended consequences and conflicts like trade wars and even real wars. Industrial property owners, who have oriented strategies to major US ports and international airports, could face the most immediate blowback.

World Peace Russia gets more aggressive after apparent meddling in the recent election, Europe tears apart over an influx of refugees escaping the Middle East dystopia, China deals with a struggling economy and underlying social unrest, and the new President surrounds himself with generals, sounding combative about ISIS and isolationist at the same time. It's all a bit unnerving.

Energy The world looks for US leadership on climate change and markets gravitate to renewables and natural gas, but Trump appears ready to abdicate, embracing coal mining and oil drilling. Will it make a difference if Mar-a-Lago floods out from rising tides in South Florida before the end of the President's term?

Fake News What can you believe and who do you believe?

Talk about uncertainty—we have it for real this time. And that's not good.