NEW YORK CITY—At this point in the real estate cycle, investors need to exercise greater caution, embracing lower returns and avoiding greater risk:
Hold core real estate: Well-leased properties, including office in the prime 24-hour markets, throw off steady income and it's still a good time to lock in near top of the market rents. These assets will be best positioned to ride out any rough spots in any inevitable market dip or worse, absent near-term lease rollover.
Ditch High Yield Strategies: At this point in the cycle, that's like getting blood out of a stone. The window for value-add and opportunistic strategies has closed.
Own Class-B Apartments: For long-term holds, this remains the best property sector sub-group to own. People always need a place to live, the population is growing, mortgage rates are headed up, and the average millennial isn't earning enough to buy a house or afford luxury rents. You almost can't go wrong as renter demand stays strong.
Selectively Dispose: It's the top of the market. Late to the game, if overly eager, foreign investors are still primed to make deals and park money. Take advantage if your goal is to cash in on the recent run up or shed assets with fading potential. But what will you do with the gains? Buying opportunities are extremely limited. That's why holding onto well-located, cash flowing properties makes so much sense.
Sell Hotels: Development has been off the charts in many markets—supply is up and demand may be peaking. That's a bad combination. Any economic reversals will hit this sector particularly hard and quickly—reducing occupancies and room rates– so better safe than sorry.
Sell shares in recently-completed development projects: Developers need to spread their project risk as markets have topped off. It's time to cash out at least partial stakes on the promise of near-term lease-up just in case the cycle turns down before stabilization can be achieved.
Hold distribution facilities serving e-commerce: Did you need the most recent Christmas sales figures to convince yourself that e-tailing is taking over the retail landscape. The clear and increasing consumer preference is to buy online and avoid the mall scene, if possible. Distribution facilities at key transport hubs become more strategic and necessary.
Think twice about retail: Except for Class-A malls and the top grocery-anchored strip-center locations, the retail scene is in upheaval. Department stores are in retreat. The Limited, once the most highly sought after inline apparel store brand, goes the way of Woolworths into bricks and mortar oblivion. Even though they are in much better shape than Sears and Kmart, the bloom is off Wal-Mart and Target. And recent high flyers like Whole Foods face challenges. The High Street retail gambit has been overdone too. Making Williamsburg or the Meat Packing District into a new Madison Avenue just won't cut it. Luxury retailers can afford just so many loss-leader branding locations. And Apple needs just so many sites for its stores. Do you really want to have anything to do with a Class B or C regional mall?
Back off development: Projects become increasingly high risk—there's a reason that banks wisely have shut down most construction lending. Luxury apartment and condo developments have over-saturated markets—it's time for a full stop in these sub sectors. New hotels are overdone too. Anything coming out of the ground now is a race against the next recession. And construction expenses will shoot up further if Trump infrastructure plans get underway, competing for labor and materials.
Be careful: Global trade may take a hit from Trump policies—industrial properties feeding off Pacific ports and distribution centers serving traffic from Mexico could be in the crosshairs or at least see some level of disruption.
Fuggedaboutit: Suburban office—nothing new here.
The views expressed here are the author's own.
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