Donald Trump

WASHINGTON, DC–Here's a fun fact for you: Zillow estimates that the White House is worth slightly less than $400 million now — a 15% appreciation percent since the Obamas moved in eight years ago.

That is a peak valuation for the 55,000-square foot home and Zillow projects that it will appreciate another 3% over the coming twelve months, which is the growth rate expected for Washington DC area homes. Home values across the country have appreciated 6.5% over the past year and 9% since Barack Obama's inauguration in 2009, according to Zillow.

And so at noon ET precisely President Obama will hand the keys over to president-elect Trump with the 'house' — which, if you hadn't guessed, was actually a metaphor for the US economy — in fairly good order.

Businesses have been optimistic about 2017 following the presidential election, in anticipation of fewer regulations and the promise of a comprehensive tax overhaul. Certainly that was the tone captured in the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, released the day before the inauguration — along with, here and there, some businesses reporting uncertainty about the possible policy changes that will be enacted by the new administration.

Unfortunately, the Trump transition did not bring that much more clarity a Trump Administration will put in place. Some of this is to be expected — every transition is marked by the rush to get ready, vet nominees for Cabinet positions, learn the nuances of White House life and so on.

But Trump's transition has been a bit more rocky and a bit less clear about policy than usual. Some open questions:

What is the plan that will replace the Affordable Care Act? Trump has indicated he is putting the finishing touches on a plan that could well be at odds with the one Speaker of the House Paul Ryan would like to see pass.

What is the status of Trump's promised massive infrastructure investment? Congress has been hinting it may not want to pay the bill for such an endeavor and a recent survey has suggested that the proposal to let private companies build the roads and bridges in exchange for the right to levy tolls would not be popular. And of course, the wall along the Mexican border continues to be controversial, especially as Trump has suggested Mexico might not pay for it, at least not right away.

Who wins and losses under the tax reform plan? In truth the CRE community is more than a bit nervous about this as some of the proposals could lead to disruption in the industry. The House of Representatives has proposed eliminating depreciation for real estate companies and other businesses, as one example. The so-called border tax proposal could have a significant effect on retailers, as another.

It is, when you think of it, a lot of uncertainty. And given that this is just day one of Trump's presidency, it will be a while, at least the 100 proverbial days, before his intentions become more clear. In the meantime, the economy should continue the modest-growth pace that has fueled commercial real estate's recovery from the recession.

Donald Trump

WASHINGTON, DC–Here's a fun fact for you: Zillow estimates that the White House is worth slightly less than $400 million now — a 15% appreciation percent since the Obamas moved in eight years ago.

That is a peak valuation for the 55,000-square foot home and Zillow projects that it will appreciate another 3% over the coming twelve months, which is the growth rate expected for Washington DC area homes. Home values across the country have appreciated 6.5% over the past year and 9% since Barack Obama's inauguration in 2009, according to Zillow.

And so at noon ET precisely President Obama will hand the keys over to president-elect Trump with the 'house' — which, if you hadn't guessed, was actually a metaphor for the US economy — in fairly good order.

Businesses have been optimistic about 2017 following the presidential election, in anticipation of fewer regulations and the promise of a comprehensive tax overhaul. Certainly that was the tone captured in the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, released the day before the inauguration — along with, here and there, some businesses reporting uncertainty about the possible policy changes that will be enacted by the new administration.

Unfortunately, the Trump transition did not bring that much more clarity a Trump Administration will put in place. Some of this is to be expected — every transition is marked by the rush to get ready, vet nominees for Cabinet positions, learn the nuances of White House life and so on.

But Trump's transition has been a bit more rocky and a bit less clear about policy than usual. Some open questions:

What is the plan that will replace the Affordable Care Act? Trump has indicated he is putting the finishing touches on a plan that could well be at odds with the one Speaker of the House Paul Ryan would like to see pass.

What is the status of Trump's promised massive infrastructure investment? Congress has been hinting it may not want to pay the bill for such an endeavor and a recent survey has suggested that the proposal to let private companies build the roads and bridges in exchange for the right to levy tolls would not be popular. And of course, the wall along the Mexican border continues to be controversial, especially as Trump has suggested Mexico might not pay for it, at least not right away.

Who wins and losses under the tax reform plan? In truth the CRE community is more than a bit nervous about this as some of the proposals could lead to disruption in the industry. The House of Representatives has proposed eliminating depreciation for real estate companies and other businesses, as one example. The so-called border tax proposal could have a significant effect on retailers, as another.

It is, when you think of it, a lot of uncertainty. And given that this is just day one of Trump's presidency, it will be a while, at least the 100 proverbial days, before his intentions become more clear. In the meantime, the economy should continue the modest-growth pace that has fueled commercial real estate's recovery from the recession.

Want to continue reading?
Become a Free ALM Digital Reader.

Once you are an ALM Digital Member, you’ll receive:

  • Breaking commercial real estate news and analysis, on-site and via our newsletters and custom alerts
  • Educational webcasts, white papers, and ebooks from industry thought leaders
  • Critical coverage of the property casualty insurance and financial advisory markets on our other ALM sites, PropertyCasualty360 and ThinkAdvisor
NOT FOR REPRINT

© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.

Erika Morphy

Erika Morphy has been writing about commercial real estate at GlobeSt.com for more than ten years, covering the capital markets, the Mid-Atlantic region and national topics. She's a nerd so favorite examples of the former include accounting standards, Basel III and what Congress is brewing.