SAN DIEGO—The real estate markets in San Diego, Orange County, Los Angeles, San Francisco and Silicon Valley are similar in many ways, but each has its unique traits. Even within the same real estate services company, executives notice differences and similarities. GlobeSt.com spoke with JLL executives in each region to get their take on the market.
Josh Brant, senior research analyst, JLL San Diego: When looking at the current state of the San Diego office and industrial markets, it's an interesting juxtaposition to look at San Diego in comparison to the other California markets. San Francisco is one of the few markets that can make our industrial average asking rental rates seem low. Currently, the market average of $0.86 per square foot is an all-time high for San Diego. The San Diego market actually surpassed the previous all-time high, by the end of 2015, and has seen continued growth since that time, with the year-end 2016 rate being a 10.3% increase over the previous year. Similarly, San Diego is known for high housing costs, but in comparison to the other major coastal California metros, San Diego is actually more affordable. The trend continues into the office market, with San Diego having the lowest average asking rent for office space among the major coastal California markets. So, in short, among our coastal California peers, San Diego is actually a good deal. The “sunshine tax” that we refer to locally for our higher cost of living compared to the nation is actually not as much of a factor in the Golden State.
Jared Dienstag, senior research analyst, JLL Orange County: The Orange County commercial real estate market continues to record positive fundamentals as the local economy grows and diversifies. In 2016, the class-B office segment recorded five times more positive net absorption than class A, for a combined total of 782,223 square feet. Meanwhile, the Airport Area submarket ended the year by surpassing previous peak asking rents with a monthly rate of $3.06 per square foot, full-service gross. Sporting a vacancy rate of 10%, the industrial market is one of the tightest in the nation. This comes on the heels of recording positive net absorption in six consecutive years, capped off with a 2016 total of 2,341,393 square feet. Demand for multifamily housing is growing as more people, particularly Millennials, favor this lifestyle. In the heart of the Airport Area, there are 2,981 units under construction, 5,704 units approved for development and 1,895 units pending approval, which will be added to the 8,075 existing units for an increase of more than 100%.
Henry Gjestrum, senior analyst, JLL Los Angeles: Overall, Los Angeles office construction is light relative to other gateway markets, and we see this as a plus. The market isn't oversupplied and not outstripping demand. Vacancy remains a bit higher than other West Coast markets, but in line with the national average. The Los Angeles economic fundamentals are strong, with robust job growth, and will continue to propel tenant demand for office space through 2017. Tech firms focused on content generation will be strong growth drivers in Los Angeles moving forward.
Amber Schiada, VP and director of research, JLL San Francisco: San Francisco's urban environment has been an attraction point for a younger workforce, driving tech-company expansion within the city. The rapidly expanding tech industry has put tremendous upward pressure on office rents, housing costs and even labor costs as companies compete for top talent. San Francisco is the most expensive tech labor market in the country, making it increasingly difficult for firms to source talent. Additionally, office costs have increased upwards of 110% since the trough in 2010. With unemployment in the 3% range, labor is in short supply, and new entrants to the market are facing the most-expensive housing market in the country. A wave of new office and housing developments entering the market in the next 18 months should provide some supply relief and lead to continued economic growth. In the meantime, some firms are exploring options outside of the city for continued growth.
Christan Basconcillo, research manager, JLL Silicon Valley: Silicon Valley's deep roots in technology and access to a large and well-established venture-capital community is why the market is an important global innovation center. The Valley's ability to cultivate and establish a diverse innovation ecosystem is why it is the headquarters location of choice to many of the large tech companies who are the driving force behind today's US economy. Having one of the highest concentrations of engineering and programming talent in the Bay Area, the expansion of the local tech sector is fueling demand for housing, office space and new-age, advanced manufacturing centers, putting the market in direct competition to San Francisco's urban environment.
SAN DIEGO—The real estate markets in San Diego, Orange County, Los Angeles, San Francisco and Silicon Valley are similar in many ways, but each has its unique traits. Even within the same real estate services company, executives notice differences and similarities. GlobeSt.com spoke with JLL executives in each region to get their take on the market.
Josh Brant, senior research analyst, JLL San Diego: When looking at the current state of the San Diego office and industrial markets, it's an interesting juxtaposition to look at San Diego in comparison to the other California markets. San Francisco is one of the few markets that can make our industrial average asking rental rates seem low. Currently, the market average of $0.86 per square foot is an all-time high for San Diego. The San Diego market actually surpassed the previous all-time high, by the end of 2015, and has seen continued growth since that time, with the year-end 2016 rate being a 10.3% increase over the previous year. Similarly, San Diego is known for high housing costs, but in comparison to the other major coastal California metros, San Diego is actually more affordable. The trend continues into the office market, with San Diego having the lowest average asking rent for office space among the major coastal California markets. So, in short, among our coastal California peers, San Diego is actually a good deal. The “sunshine tax” that we refer to locally for our higher cost of living compared to the nation is actually not as much of a factor in the Golden State.
Jared Dienstag, senior research analyst, JLL Orange County: The Orange County commercial real estate market continues to record positive fundamentals as the local economy grows and diversifies. In 2016, the class-B office segment recorded five times more positive net absorption than class A, for a combined total of 782,223 square feet. Meanwhile, the Airport Area submarket ended the year by surpassing previous peak asking rents with a monthly rate of $3.06 per square foot, full-service gross. Sporting a vacancy rate of 10%, the industrial market is one of the tightest in the nation. This comes on the heels of recording positive net absorption in six consecutive years, capped off with a 2016 total of 2,341,393 square feet. Demand for multifamily housing is growing as more people, particularly Millennials, favor this lifestyle. In the heart of the Airport Area, there are 2,981 units under construction, 5,704 units approved for development and 1,895 units pending approval, which will be added to the 8,075 existing units for an increase of more than 100%.
Henry Gjestrum, senior analyst, JLL Los Angeles: Overall, Los Angeles office construction is light relative to other gateway markets, and we see this as a plus. The market isn't oversupplied and not outstripping demand. Vacancy remains a bit higher than other West Coast markets, but in line with the national average. The Los Angeles economic fundamentals are strong, with robust job growth, and will continue to propel tenant demand for office space through 2017. Tech firms focused on content generation will be strong growth drivers in Los Angeles moving forward.
Amber Schiada, VP and director of research, JLL San Francisco: San Francisco's urban environment has been an attraction point for a younger workforce, driving tech-company expansion within the city. The rapidly expanding tech industry has put tremendous upward pressure on office rents, housing costs and even labor costs as companies compete for top talent. San Francisco is the most expensive tech labor market in the country, making it increasingly difficult for firms to source talent. Additionally, office costs have increased upwards of 110% since the trough in 2010. With unemployment in the 3% range, labor is in short supply, and new entrants to the market are facing the most-expensive housing market in the country. A wave of new office and housing developments entering the market in the next 18 months should provide some supply relief and lead to continued economic growth. In the meantime, some firms are exploring options outside of the city for continued growth.
Christan Basconcillo, research manager, JLL Silicon Valley: Silicon Valley's deep roots in technology and access to a large and well-established venture-capital community is why the market is an important global innovation center. The Valley's ability to cultivate and establish a diverse innovation ecosystem is why it is the headquarters location of choice to many of the large tech companies who are the driving force behind today's US economy. Having one of the highest concentrations of engineering and programming talent in the Bay Area, the expansion of the local tech sector is fueling demand for housing, office space and new-age, advanced manufacturing centers, putting the market in direct competition to San Francisco's urban environment.
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