S&P Dow Jones' David Blitzer

NEW YORK CITY—Another month, another all-time high in single-family home prices? For the third consecutive month, home prices reached a new peak in November, S&P Dow Jones Indices said Tuesday.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller US National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine US census divisions, reported a 5.6% annual gain in November, up from 5.5% in the previous month. At 185.23, the index is now 0.3% above the prior peak of 184.62 set in July 2006.

“With the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index rising at about 5.5% annual rate over the last two-and-a-half years and having reached a new all-time high recently, one can argue that housing has recovered from the boom-bust cycle that began a dozen years ago,” says David M. Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. He notes that the recovery has been supported by a few economic factors, including low interest rates, falling unemployment and consistent gains in per-capita disposable personal income.

“Thirty-year fixed rate mortgages dropped under 4.5% in 2011 and have only recently shown hints of rising above that level,” Blitzer adds. “The unemployment rate at 4.7% is close to the Fed's full employment target. Inflation adjusted per capita personal disposable income has risen at about a 2.5% annual rate for 30 months.”

Blitzer notes that the home price and economic data all derive from last year. “The new administration in Washington is seeking faster economic growth, increased investment in infrastructure and changes in tax policy which could affect housing and home prices,” he says.

Mortgage rates have increased since the election, says Blitzer, “and stronger economic growth could push them higher. Further gains in personal income and employment may increase the demand for housing and add to price pressures when home prices are already rising about twice as fast as inflation.”

S&P Dow Jones' David Blitzer Dow Jones

NEW YORK CITY—Another month, another all-time high in single-family home prices? For the third consecutive month, home prices reached a new peak in November, S&P Dow Jones Indices said Tuesday.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller US National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine US census divisions, reported a 5.6% annual gain in November, up from 5.5% in the previous month. At 185.23, the index is now 0.3% above the prior peak of 184.62 set in July 2006.

“With the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index rising at about 5.5% annual rate over the last two-and-a-half years and having reached a new all-time high recently, one can argue that housing has recovered from the boom-bust cycle that began a dozen years ago,” says David M. Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. He notes that the recovery has been supported by a few economic factors, including low interest rates, falling unemployment and consistent gains in per-capita disposable personal income.

“Thirty-year fixed rate mortgages dropped under 4.5% in 2011 and have only recently shown hints of rising above that level,” Blitzer adds. “The unemployment rate at 4.7% is close to the Fed's full employment target. Inflation adjusted per capita personal disposable income has risen at about a 2.5% annual rate for 30 months.”

Blitzer notes that the home price and economic data all derive from last year. “The new administration in Washington is seeking faster economic growth, increased investment in infrastructure and changes in tax policy which could affect housing and home prices,” he says.

Mortgage rates have increased since the election, says Blitzer, “and stronger economic growth could push them higher. Further gains in personal income and employment may increase the demand for housing and add to price pressures when home prices are already rising about twice as fast as inflation.”

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Paul Bubny

Paul Bubny is managing editor of Real Estate Forum and GlobeSt.com. He has been reporting on business since 1988 and on commercial real estate since 2007. He is based at ALM Real Estate Media Group's offices in New York City.

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