Manus Clancy of Trepp

NEW YORK CITY—Although 2017 isn't likely to see a repeat performance, the year began with a slight drop in the Trepp CMBS Delinquency Rate, Trepp LLC said Wednesday. The five-basis point decline in January, to 5.18%, occurred even as a large amount of maturities looms.

“The volume of maturing CMBS debt that could not be refinanced at its maturity date continued to surge last month,” said Manus Clancy, senior managing director at Trepp. “Though this would normally lead to a higher monthly delinquency rate, the rate was pushed lower by an unusually large number of resolutions for delinquent loans. Whether this is a blip or the beginning of a trend remains to be seen.”

Newly delinquent CMBS debt reached nearly $2 billion in January. At the same time, though, delinquent loans that paid off with a loss or at par totaled about $1.8 billion during the month, and another $700 million in loans were cured last month.

January's five-bp decline in CMBS late-pays was the first in five months, and only the second in the past 11 months. The delinquency rate is now 86 bps higher than it was a year ago, just before hitting a multi-year low of 4.15%. Conversely, it's more than 500 bps lower than the all-time high of 10.34% in July 2012.

Trepp notes that many of the stronger performing loans from 2006 and 2007 were either defeased prior to maturity, or paid off during their open period. “Those that made it to their maturity date tended to be loans with more middling debt service coverage or uncertainty in their rent rolls,” according to Trepp.

By property type, office remained the worst-performing property type, as it has been for the past six months, while retail came in second. However, the office delinquency rate declined two bps from December to 7.11%, while retail's late-pay rate fell 27 bps to 6.10%.

Multifamily remains the best performer, but the delinquency rate for CMBS loans in this sector rose 24 bps to 2.96% during January. Industrial rose 40 bps to 6.02%, while lodging slipped one bp to 3.56%.

Manus Clancy of Trepp

NEW YORK CITY—Although 2017 isn't likely to see a repeat performance, the year began with a slight drop in the Trepp CMBS Delinquency Rate, Trepp LLC said Wednesday. The five-basis point decline in January, to 5.18%, occurred even as a large amount of maturities looms.

“The volume of maturing CMBS debt that could not be refinanced at its maturity date continued to surge last month,” said Manus Clancy, senior managing director at Trepp. “Though this would normally lead to a higher monthly delinquency rate, the rate was pushed lower by an unusually large number of resolutions for delinquent loans. Whether this is a blip or the beginning of a trend remains to be seen.”

Newly delinquent CMBS debt reached nearly $2 billion in January. At the same time, though, delinquent loans that paid off with a loss or at par totaled about $1.8 billion during the month, and another $700 million in loans were cured last month.

January's five-bp decline in CMBS late-pays was the first in five months, and only the second in the past 11 months. The delinquency rate is now 86 bps higher than it was a year ago, just before hitting a multi-year low of 4.15%. Conversely, it's more than 500 bps lower than the all-time high of 10.34% in July 2012.

Trepp notes that many of the stronger performing loans from 2006 and 2007 were either defeased prior to maturity, or paid off during their open period. “Those that made it to their maturity date tended to be loans with more middling debt service coverage or uncertainty in their rent rolls,” according to Trepp.

By property type, office remained the worst-performing property type, as it has been for the past six months, while retail came in second. However, the office delinquency rate declined two bps from December to 7.11%, while retail's late-pay rate fell 27 bps to 6.10%.

Multifamily remains the best performer, but the delinquency rate for CMBS loans in this sector rose 24 bps to 2.96% during January. Industrial rose 40 bps to 6.02%, while lodging slipped one bp to 3.56%.

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Paul Bubny

Paul Bubny is managing editor of Real Estate Forum and GlobeSt.com. He has been reporting on business since 1988 and on commercial real estate since 2007. He is based at ALM Real Estate Media Group's offices in New York City.

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