The speed at which the new administration is moving is creating a situation that most people, including foreign leaders, cannot deal with. Most people fall into a pattern and like predictability in their lives, so they stay in their comfort zone. Trump has done what most good New Yorkers do, he is moving quickly to get things accomplished, and he is doing it in a direct and brash style, unfamiliar to people outside New York. It is irrelevant if you think this is good or bad. It is what is happening, and what will happen for the next four years, so get used to it and adjust.
Most people, whether politicians, foreign leaders or company managers, are used to a certain order of doing things, and a much more collegial and diplomatic style of discussion and decision making. Trump, on the other hand, is an entrepreneur, he has laid out all of his plans and views over the past year, and it is clear his transition team has been hard at work preparing to implement his programs. He is used to making decisions quickly, and pretty much on his own, and making things happen, and to not worrying if everyone has been consulted and is on board. It is classic New York real estate style, and what he has known all his life. To think he is going to change at age 70 is to be foolish and wishful, but that is not going to happen.
They clearly blew the rollout of the immigration policy, but were it communicated better, the policy is sound and legal, despite some activist judges. All the policy really said was, the ability to properly vet refugees from these seven countries, that Obama designated as dangerous terror centers, is not adequate and they need 90 days to find a better way to determine who is entering the country. Syria has no functioning records to know who these people are, nor any way to determine easily if they are ISIS infiltrators. ISIS has said the are sneaking in jihadis to do terror acts as we have seen in several cases in Europe with horrible consequences. The San Bernardino woman was let in because Obama refused to let immigration look at her social media which were filled with radical postings. So the intent was good, just the roll out was poorly done, giving the mainstream media and the left excuses to stage protests and ongoing news attacks. You can be sure that will not happen again.
Unfortunately it is clear the Democrats and the far left and Soros are devastated by being wiped out at all levels of government in the election. They are flailing around for direction, and a way to recoup any position with which to have any influence. Staging boycotts of confirmation votes, and having Schumer whine and shed make believe tears is not going to win any support from middle of the road voters.
So what does all this mean to us in CRE? It means there will be absolutely no bipartisanship in Washington. Obama managed to polarize the country along political and racial lines in ways we have not seen in well over 30 years. The press is solidly liberal and just ramps up the rhetoric with attacks on Trump, and in some cases false stories. None of this is good for those of us who are trying to do deals and build our businesses. We desperately need major tax reform, Obamacare needs to be replaced with a sound and workable healthcare system, the teachers unions have to be demolished so kids in poor areas can have a real opportunity to learn and get good jobs and have hope, and the massive over-regulation has got to be eliminated, especially on banks.
It is hard to know how much can be done by the administration with executive orders, how much the Republican House can vote to cancel the last 60 days of regulation, and how much the cabinet heads can force through major changes, especially at EPA, Labor and Treasury. Hopefully a lot. Our success depends on it.
Trump has so upset the status quo and the norms of how Washington and the world function, and he has moved so fast, that the Democrats and teachers unions do not know where turn and fight next. Everyday is a new order and a new attack on the established norms, that as soon as the left turns to one thing, there is a new one to distract them and the press.
For CRE we just need to keep our eye on the goal, and not get distracted by protests, Schumer whining to the press, which is what he has done in New York for years, and we need to ignore CNN, NBC and the NY Times raging about this or that. Listen to what Paul Ryan says is really happening with tax reform, Obamacare replacement, regulatory repeal etc. Just weigh the risks as best you can and keep risk to a minimum for now. All you really can do is affect that which is in your world, and not let a lot of the noise in the press and protests get in the way of sound business judgments. There will be tax reform late this year and it likely will be retroactive at least to some degree. Gorsuch will be on the court, regulations will be materially rolled back which will be good for the economy and us, and there are superb people in the cabinet who will make it a far more friendly environment for banks, business and life in general. The EU is very likely to come apart next year, the UK will successfully Brexit, and ISIS will be defeated by late this year. The US is still the best place to invest, and the US economy will remain solid unless the Democrats get in the way of all the tax reform, regulatory reform and other good things that will make it a lot better for CRE. Mexico has no choice but to work out a rewriting of NAFTA, the Chinese need to find a way t work with Trump or their economy tanks, and Putin will test Trump and in the end find it better to cooperate than stage new invasions. It is going to be a very volatile year or more, so keep risk off and stay flexible.
The views expressed are the author's own.
The speed at which the new administration is moving is creating a situation that most people, including foreign leaders, cannot deal with. Most people fall into a pattern and like predictability in their lives, so they stay in their comfort zone. Trump has done what most good New Yorkers do, he is moving quickly to get things accomplished, and he is doing it in a direct and brash style, unfamiliar to people outside
Most people, whether politicians, foreign leaders or company managers, are used to a certain order of doing things, and a much more collegial and diplomatic style of discussion and decision making. Trump, on the other hand, is an entrepreneur, he has laid out all of his plans and views over the past year, and it is clear his transition team has been hard at work preparing to implement his programs. He is used to making decisions quickly, and pretty much on his own, and making things happen, and to not worrying if everyone has been consulted and is on board. It is classic
They clearly blew the rollout of the immigration policy, but were it communicated better, the policy is sound and legal, despite some activist judges. All the policy really said was, the ability to properly vet refugees from these seven countries, that Obama designated as dangerous terror centers, is not adequate and they need 90 days to find a better way to determine who is entering the country. Syria has no functioning records to know who these people are, nor any way to determine easily if they are ISIS infiltrators. ISIS has said the are sneaking in jihadis to do terror acts as we have seen in several cases in Europe with horrible consequences. The San Bernardino woman was let in because Obama refused to let immigration look at her social media which were filled with radical postings. So the intent was good, just the roll out was poorly done, giving the mainstream media and the left excuses to stage protests and ongoing news attacks. You can be sure that will not happen again.
Unfortunately it is clear the Democrats and the far left and Soros are devastated by being wiped out at all levels of government in the election. They are flailing around for direction, and a way to recoup any position with which to have any influence. Staging boycotts of confirmation votes, and having Schumer whine and shed make believe tears is not going to win any support from middle of the road voters.
So what does all this mean to us in CRE? It means there will be absolutely no bipartisanship in Washington. Obama managed to polarize the country along political and racial lines in ways we have not seen in well over 30 years. The press is solidly liberal and just ramps up the rhetoric with attacks on Trump, and in some cases false stories. None of this is good for those of us who are trying to do deals and build our businesses. We desperately need major tax reform, Obamacare needs to be replaced with a sound and workable healthcare system, the teachers unions have to be demolished so kids in poor areas can have a real opportunity to learn and get good jobs and have hope, and the massive over-regulation has got to be eliminated, especially on banks.
It is hard to know how much can be done by the administration with executive orders, how much the Republican House can vote to cancel the last 60 days of regulation, and how much the cabinet heads can force through major changes, especially at EPA, Labor and Treasury. Hopefully a lot. Our success depends on it.
Trump has so upset the status quo and the norms of how Washington and the world function, and he has moved so fast, that the Democrats and teachers unions do not know where turn and fight next. Everyday is a new order and a new attack on the established norms, that as soon as the left turns to one thing, there is a new one to distract them and the press.
For CRE we just need to keep our eye on the goal, and not get distracted by protests, Schumer whining to the press, which is what he has done in
The views expressed are the author's own.
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