Jonathan D. Miller

I was in Chicago when the President was watching a segment on Fox's O'Reilly Factor about the city's disconcerting murder rate. That led to Mr. Trump's tweet about stopping “the carnage” and “sending in the Feds.”

The scourge of urban mayhem was a part of the President's dystopian campaign rhetoric too, stirring up fears and feeding into a narrative of America out of control and under siege. It obviously played well in rural areas where folks have little or no exposure to city life and can only imagine the dysfunction. Where it didn't play well was in the supposedly besieged cities—Mr. Trump lost the urban vote overwhelmingly across all income strata, ethnic and racial groups. And by the way, the top 30 urban areas, ranked by their share of gross domestic product, generate more than half of the economic output of the United States, which is nearly $18 trillion overall, according to a recent study in the New York Times.

While Chicago, like all our cities, faces its challenges—including, in Chicago's case, intractable gang violence—the downtown and nearby neighborhoods seem to be flourishing and yes, very safe.

Now admittedly I did not venture into the impoverished Southwest side neighborhoods where the unremitting gang-related mayhem reins out of control and the violence concentrates. At a dinner that night, coincidentally with an executive at a primary care Southside hospital, she talked about the ungodly gunshot trauma rate there, later reinforced by a 10 o'clock Eyewitness News story about the burden placed on that very same hospital's emergency room.

But urban America and Chicago are in a far different and better place than in the “Death Wish” days of the 1970s and 1980s in the aftermath of racially charged white flight to the suburbs. Indeed a generation ago cityscapes were viewed legitimately as dangerous and crime impaired-places to be avoided and seemingly in death spirals.

Today the nation's 24-hour cities, Chicago included, have transformed into magnets for brainpower and commerce, the very gateways for our economic growth and the centers of capitalist endeavor. Young people gravitate to them to make their careers. Tourists from around the world hunger to visit them to see their attractions, cultural institutions, and engage their sights and sounds.

I walked up the Gold Coast from North Michigan Avenue into Old Town and Lincoln Park—the venerable upscale districts. And then I ventured back along Halstead and North Avenue into areas that have been made over in recent years from “No Go” ghetto districts like the infamous Cabrini Green into emerging sought after neighborhoods with strips of brand-name stores and high energy activity. Next I proceeded back through the Loop along Grant Park and down South Michigan, winding back and crossing the river into the West Loop for dinner in a formerly forlorn warehouse district, now a millennial nightlife destination.

Back in my hotel, local TV news anchors looked a bit befuddled over the President's tweets. Was the National Guard on its way? Or was this just more reactive stream of consciousness? Within hours the narrative had moved on to threats from refugees, scolding foreign leaders, unreported terrorist attacks, Nordstrom's dropping Ivanka's clothing line, and obstructionist “so called” judges.

But real estate investors need to take seriously the President's dangerous-city narrative and its impact on their holdings. The PR-marketing master President has not exactly been supporting Chamber of Commerce story lines. If you didn't know better after reading Mr. Trump's message, you probably would want to steer clear of the Windy City.

Will Chicago lose convention and tourist business? Will companies be less inclined to relocate there? Will commercial activity be chilled even at the margins? All because of a tweet? And separately, will sanctuary cities—like New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Chicago—lose precious federal funding if they do not cooperate on immigration policy, designed to rid them of illegals, many of whom are allegedly criminals creating havoc under the President's line of reasoning? How might that impact essential city services and quality of life?

Chicago's budget deficits, problem schools and Illinois's public pension debacle are very real threats to the city's future. No doubt bringing down the murder rate is an extremely high priority—other cities have succeeded, why not Chicago? But there is a reason why real estate players from around the world concentrate their wealth and activity in the major US urban centers. It's because these 24-hour Meccas work in attracting enterprise, brainpower, affluence and culture—they create the best opportunities for owning, developing, and re-purposing properties, leading to growing net operating incomes and value creation for investors. These core investments also hold value better through cyclical downturns.

Supporting cities with infrastructure outlays, school aid, and affordable housing programs could be helpful and create jobs. Talking them down makes little sense.

It's in the President's personal interest too—he has his name plastered on a skyscraper in one of Chicago's most trafficked downtown locations for all of us to glory in.

The views expressed here are the author's own.

Jonathan D. Miller

I was in Chicago when the President was watching a segment on Fox's O'Reilly Factor about the city's disconcerting murder rate. That led to Mr. Trump's tweet about stopping “the carnage” and “sending in the Feds.”

The scourge of urban mayhem was a part of the President's dystopian campaign rhetoric too, stirring up fears and feeding into a narrative of America out of control and under siege. It obviously played well in rural areas where folks have little or no exposure to city life and can only imagine the dysfunction. Where it didn't play well was in the supposedly besieged cities—Mr. Trump lost the urban vote overwhelmingly across all income strata, ethnic and racial groups. And by the way, the top 30 urban areas, ranked by their share of gross domestic product, generate more than half of the economic output of the United States, which is nearly $18 trillion overall, according to a recent study in the New York Times.

While Chicago, like all our cities, faces its challenges—including, in Chicago's case, intractable gang violence—the downtown and nearby neighborhoods seem to be flourishing and yes, very safe.

Now admittedly I did not venture into the impoverished Southwest side neighborhoods where the unremitting gang-related mayhem reins out of control and the violence concentrates. At a dinner that night, coincidentally with an executive at a primary care Southside hospital, she talked about the ungodly gunshot trauma rate there, later reinforced by a 10 o'clock Eyewitness News story about the burden placed on that very same hospital's emergency room.

But urban America and Chicago are in a far different and better place than in the “Death Wish” days of the 1970s and 1980s in the aftermath of racially charged white flight to the suburbs. Indeed a generation ago cityscapes were viewed legitimately as dangerous and crime impaired-places to be avoided and seemingly in death spirals.

Today the nation's 24-hour cities, Chicago included, have transformed into magnets for brainpower and commerce, the very gateways for our economic growth and the centers of capitalist endeavor. Young people gravitate to them to make their careers. Tourists from around the world hunger to visit them to see their attractions, cultural institutions, and engage their sights and sounds.

I walked up the Gold Coast from North Michigan Avenue into Old Town and Lincoln Park—the venerable upscale districts. And then I ventured back along Halstead and North Avenue into areas that have been made over in recent years from “No Go” ghetto districts like the infamous Cabrini Green into emerging sought after neighborhoods with strips of brand-name stores and high energy activity. Next I proceeded back through the Loop along Grant Park and down South Michigan, winding back and crossing the river into the West Loop for dinner in a formerly forlorn warehouse district, now a millennial nightlife destination.

Back in my hotel, local TV news anchors looked a bit befuddled over the President's tweets. Was the National Guard on its way? Or was this just more reactive stream of consciousness? Within hours the narrative had moved on to threats from refugees, scolding foreign leaders, unreported terrorist attacks, Nordstrom's dropping Ivanka's clothing line, and obstructionist “so called” judges.

But real estate investors need to take seriously the President's dangerous-city narrative and its impact on their holdings. The PR-marketing master President has not exactly been supporting Chamber of Commerce story lines. If you didn't know better after reading Mr. Trump's message, you probably would want to steer clear of the Windy City.

Will Chicago lose convention and tourist business? Will companies be less inclined to relocate there? Will commercial activity be chilled even at the margins? All because of a tweet? And separately, will sanctuary cities—like New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Chicago—lose precious federal funding if they do not cooperate on immigration policy, designed to rid them of illegals, many of whom are allegedly criminals creating havoc under the President's line of reasoning? How might that impact essential city services and quality of life?

Chicago's budget deficits, problem schools and Illinois's public pension debacle are very real threats to the city's future. No doubt bringing down the murder rate is an extremely high priority—other cities have succeeded, why not Chicago? But there is a reason why real estate players from around the world concentrate their wealth and activity in the major US urban centers. It's because these 24-hour Meccas work in attracting enterprise, brainpower, affluence and culture—they create the best opportunities for owning, developing, and re-purposing properties, leading to growing net operating incomes and value creation for investors. These core investments also hold value better through cyclical downturns.

Supporting cities with infrastructure outlays, school aid, and affordable housing programs could be helpful and create jobs. Talking them down makes little sense.

It's in the President's personal interest too—he has his name plastered on a skyscraper in one of Chicago's most trafficked downtown locations for all of us to glory in.

The views expressed here are the author's own.

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Jonathan D. Miller

A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.

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