The contact information for each prediction will be kept confidential; other contestants will not know your estimate. The results will be compiled, charted and distributed to participants.
In light of the contest, we chatted with Voorhees about the macro events that he believes will influence the Treasury Yield for 2017 and how President Trump's policies could help shape this year's outcome.

GlobeSt.com: What macro events do you believe will influence the Treasury Yield for 2017?
Voorhees: The 10-Year Treasury is widely known as the longer-term “risk free” rate of investment, since the United States has never defaulted on a debt obligation. Over time, long-term and short-term interest rates generally correlate, though this is not always the case in the short run. Immediately following the 2016 election, the 10-Year Treasury skyrocketed from 1.86% on Nov 8 to 2.60% on December 16. To put this in perspective, that's like the Dow exploding from 19,900 to 28,700 in five weeks. The 10YT seems to be settling around 2.40% to 2.50% as of early-to-mid February. This run-up may have resulted from investors expecting increased economic stimulus and prosperity from the Trump presidency spurring growth and inflation (to an extent, a good result for the US), or it could be the result of investor concerns about the stability and security of US bonds, essentially wanting “more yield for the increased risk.” It's impossible to say, but almost certainly a combination of factors.

GlobeSt.com: How will Trump's socioeconomic policies help shape the Yield's outcome this year?

Voorhees: While I was a political science major, I could only guess. It's easy to see how aggressive stimulus and tax reform permitted by control of both houses could produce economic growth quickly. The counterpoint is that upsetting long-standing global relationships and multinational agreements will increase uncertainty; typically, not a good thing for capital markets. Personally, I am likely an outlier in that I expect the 10-Year Treasury will pull back significantly by year end.

GlobeSt.com: What other factors will affect the Yield?

Voorhees: In the most basic sense, the optimism or pessimism of investors affects the yield. Optimism pushes capital toward equities and away from bonds, increasing bond yields. Conversely, pessimism (if not outright fear!) produces a flight to quality (safety), usually a move out of equities and into bonds. Of course, cash and alternative investments like real estate are also options. This is an overly simplistic, though substantially accurate, overview of investor behavior.

GlobeSt.com: What else should our readers know about your “Pin the Yield” contest?

Voorhees: This is a “come one, come all” contest. The closest yield pinner will receive $1,000 along with all the prestige and bragging rights associated with a sage prediction.

NEWPORT BEACH, CA—Over time, long-term and short-term interest rates generally correlate, though this is not always the case in the short run, CBRE SVP Phil Voorhees tells GlobeSt.com.

Voorhees has announced that the winner for his annual 10-Year Treasury Bill “Pin the Yield” contest for 2016 is Ben Cherney, VP of capital markets and commercial acquisitions for Starpoint Properties LLC in Beverly Hills, CA. Voorhees is currently accepting entries for the 2017 contest.

The year-end 10-Year Treasury yield was 2.45% on December 31, 2016. Cherney's submission was flanked by 1 bps on either side (six participants guessed at 2.44%, and two participants guessed at 2.46%). The prize is a $1,000 AMEX gift card.

This is essentially a “closest to the pin” contest to predict where the 10-Year Treasury yield will close on Friday, December 29. To participate in the contest, click on this link, enter your estimate (go to two decimal places .XX) and contact info, then push Next. Deadline to submit your estimate is prior to the end of the day, Friday, March 3.

The contact information for each prediction will be kept confidential; other contestants will not know your estimate. The results will be compiled, charted and distributed to participants.
In light of the contest, we chatted with Voorhees about the macro events that he believes will influence the Treasury Yield for 2017 and how President Trump's policies could help shape this year's outcome.

GlobeSt.com: What macro events do you believe will influence the Treasury Yield for 2017?
Voorhees: The 10-Year Treasury is widely known as the longer-term “risk free” rate of investment, since the United States has never defaulted on a debt obligation. Over time, long-term and short-term interest rates generally correlate, though this is not always the case in the short run. Immediately following the 2016 election, the 10-Year Treasury skyrocketed from 1.86% on Nov 8 to 2.60% on December 16. To put this in perspective, that's like the Dow exploding from 19,900 to 28,700 in five weeks. The 10YT seems to be settling around 2.40% to 2.50% as of early-to-mid February. This run-up may have resulted from investors expecting increased economic stimulus and prosperity from the Trump presidency spurring growth and inflation (to an extent, a good result for the US), or it could be the result of investor concerns about the stability and security of US bonds, essentially wanting “more yield for the increased risk.” It's impossible to say, but almost certainly a combination of factors.

GlobeSt.com: How will Trump's socioeconomic policies help shape the Yield's outcome this year?

Voorhees: While I was a political science major, I could only guess. It's easy to see how aggressive stimulus and tax reform permitted by control of both houses could produce economic growth quickly. The counterpoint is that upsetting long-standing global relationships and multinational agreements will increase uncertainty; typically, not a good thing for capital markets. Personally, I am likely an outlier in that I expect the 10-Year Treasury will pull back significantly by year end.

GlobeSt.com: What other factors will affect the Yield?

Voorhees: In the most basic sense, the optimism or pessimism of investors affects the yield. Optimism pushes capital toward equities and away from bonds, increasing bond yields. Conversely, pessimism (if not outright fear!) produces a flight to quality (safety), usually a move out of equities and into bonds. Of course, cash and alternative investments like real estate are also options. This is an overly simplistic, though substantially accurate, overview of investor behavior.

GlobeSt.com: What else should our readers know about your “Pin the Yield” contest?

Voorhees: This is a “come one, come all” contest. The closest yield pinner will receive $1,000 along with all the prestige and bragging rights associated with a sage prediction.