So in CRE we need to make our own judgments about things that will affect our business. Listen to what Trump and his cabinet say, and not what the press says they say or mean. Listen when Mnuchin says we will have tax reform by August. Listen when Kelly says the wall will be built in two years. And listen when Trump signs a series of executive orders to eliminate a lot of banking and other crushing regulation. It is clear they mean it. This is not the usual Obama era lies and disinformation. The cabinet is made up of people who are highly successful deal guys as is Trump, and generals who won major battles, who know you need to be completely flexible in your thinking, and everything is subject to change, and you just need to keep your cool and pound through it to reach the objective.

Politicians get all caught up in ideology. Deal guys and generals aim for the goal line and twist, turn, or charge ahead to get the touchdown. They do not let themselves get caught up in any one position, and they modify as the go to get the deal closed, or the battle won. Neither the press nor politicians know how to do this, nor do they even understand how this happens. In the past various people with an agenda would publicly say there is this or that major issue and we probably can't get the legislation passed. Deal guys say- OK what do we need to do, and what is our revised deal terms, and let's get it closed. It is a totally different mind set, and that is why we need to assume when Trump or Mnuchin or Ross or one of the generals says we are going to reach this goal, it is highly likely to happen despite the Democrats trying to kill everything .

So plan on replacing Obamacare by spring, tax reform by August, major deregulation by summer and a revised Dodd-Frank by late summer. Clearly the Democrats and the press will claim whatever they do is to help the rich, the banks, us greedy landlords and developers, and there will be lots more protests. But this time the protests and screaming will not be allowed to matter. The voters spoke and demanded these things get done, and we have a group of guys who know how to overcome hurdles and make it happen. Interest rates will rise three times this year, but take that to mean the economy is really improving and regulations are going away which massively free up banks and other capital to fund our projects. By 2018 we should be on a very positive roll, and then in November 2018 the Republicans will get complete control. All of this will happen just as the EU is falling into real chaos as Le Pen and Wilders win and Brexit becomes hard Brexit. The US will be the shining light for investors. If we are careful this time and stay disciplined, US CRE will have a very good run for awhile.

The views expressed here are the author's own.

Despite the reports in the press about dysfunction at the White House, and other reports that various major legislation is hung up in Congress, don't believe all the noise. The reality is the Republicans know they have a once in several generations opportunity to make dramatic changes to regulation, healthcare, taxes, defense, and education, and they fully understand that if they blow it now they are toast. For them it is now or never. Very clearly, despite the protests and mainstream media reports, the voters opted for Republicans from the local level to the White House, and the silent majority has spoken they want massive change to the liberal and left wing policies we have been suffering through during the last 8 years at every level.

One reason the Democrats and the Bernie screamers are so crazed is they can't believe the majority of grown ups really don't agree with them, and they cannot believe they got wiped out at every level. So they and the media claim it is Russia, Comey, rogue FBI agents, or whatever it may be, and they disrupt town halls because they are so frustrated that they got rejected. So we get a bunch of left wing groups and Obama now sending out training messages to their followers telling them to disrupt anything Republican, and telling them everyone in the new administration are haters, and terrible people.

This is all very dangerous for democracy, and bad for the country to have what should be fair exchanges of views in town halls now become like Fascist brownshirt attacks on anyone who does not agree with them. This is a direct outgrowth of what has been going on at universities where any minority of students can just demand any speaker they reject not be allowed on campus, and most schools allowing that suppression of free speech to be the rule.

One protestor said it well at University of Chicago—“a speaker who we determine to be saying hateful things or what we determine to be racist things has no first amendment rights.” Just absorb that statement for awhile. It shows that these kids have no understanding of how crucial the first amendment has been in making America the wonderful country it is. At University of Virginia they even reject the writings of Jefferson, who as you know wrote the first amendment that he considered the key clause in the constitution, and many other clauses. Were it not for him these stupid kids would not have the right to protest. And now the press is so biased it has lost all credibility.

So in CRE we need to make our own judgments about things that will affect our business. Listen to what Trump and his cabinet say, and not what the press says they say or mean. Listen when Mnuchin says we will have tax reform by August. Listen when Kelly says the wall will be built in two years. And listen when Trump signs a series of executive orders to eliminate a lot of banking and other crushing regulation. It is clear they mean it. This is not the usual Obama era lies and disinformation. The cabinet is made up of people who are highly successful deal guys as is Trump, and generals who won major battles, who know you need to be completely flexible in your thinking, and everything is subject to change, and you just need to keep your cool and pound through it to reach the objective.

Politicians get all caught up in ideology. Deal guys and generals aim for the goal line and twist, turn, or charge ahead to get the touchdown. They do not let themselves get caught up in any one position, and they modify as the go to get the deal closed, or the battle won. Neither the press nor politicians know how to do this, nor do they even understand how this happens. In the past various people with an agenda would publicly say there is this or that major issue and we probably can't get the legislation passed. Deal guys say- OK what do we need to do, and what is our revised deal terms, and let's get it closed. It is a totally different mind set, and that is why we need to assume when Trump or Mnuchin or Ross or one of the generals says we are going to reach this goal, it is highly likely to happen despite the Democrats trying to kill everything .

So plan on replacing Obamacare by spring, tax reform by August, major deregulation by summer and a revised Dodd-Frank by late summer. Clearly the Democrats and the press will claim whatever they do is to help the rich, the banks, us greedy landlords and developers, and there will be lots more protests. But this time the protests and screaming will not be allowed to matter. The voters spoke and demanded these things get done, and we have a group of guys who know how to overcome hurdles and make it happen. Interest rates will rise three times this year, but take that to mean the economy is really improving and regulations are going away which massively free up banks and other capital to fund our projects. By 2018 we should be on a very positive roll, and then in November 2018 the Republicans will get complete control. All of this will happen just as the EU is falling into real chaos as Le Pen and Wilders win and Brexit becomes hard Brexit. The US will be the shining light for investors. If we are careful this time and stay disciplined, US CRE will have a very good run for awhile.

The views expressed here are the author's own.