LONDON—We are approaching the time when the global property market descends on Cannes in the south of France for MIPIM, the real estate jamboree for 20,000-plus owners, developers, funders, bankers and advisers which sets the tone in Europe for the rest of the year.
MIPIM is also a time when US investors arrive in Europe in force, using the conference, exhibition and networking to gauge the temperature of our continent. So what will the mood be like on the Riviera on March 13?
First, let's get the last 12 months in Europe in context. MIPIM in 2016 had a doom-laden feel, with the traditional sun and 70-plus degree weather replaced by leaden skies, heavy rain and a roaring trade among the umbrella hawkers along the Croisette.
The temperature among the delegates was pretty cool, too with nerves beginning to jangle over Britain's Referendum on the European Union, even if the prospect of President Trump's election was still far-fetched among attendees.
Fast forwards 12 months and the mood across Europe is more upbeat. The Bank of England has just revised its growth forecast for the UK upwards for the second time in recent months, to 2% for 2017, and Eurozone growth is also on an upward curve.
In Knight Frank's latest “European Outlook,” we see opportunities for 2017, first in terms of:
• Politics. With elections due in France, The Netherlands and Germany, short-term volatility in markets will open up some attractive investment opportunities.
• Currency movements. The weaker pound is proving a boon to the UK economy, and has seen an increase in interest in London particularly from Asian investors.
• Specialist sectors. The healthcare, automotive and build-to-rent sectors are getting stronger and stronger in the UK, although student accommodation may pause for breath until the regime for overseas students post-Brexit becomes clearer. On the continent, such sectors are equally attractive but still more fragmented wherein lies the opportunity.
In terms of who is buying in Europe as we head to MIPIM, the combined firepower of American investors remains dominant. Whilst investment volumes are down 21% on the previous year, the total remains significant.
The original US pioneers—like Goldman Sachs , Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan—who “colonized” the real estate markets in the late 90's and early 2000s, establishing real estate as a global asset class, are still prominent.
The advent and introduction of the euro brought a proliferation of US Pan-European vehicles such as Apollo, Blackstone, Tristan and so on, adding considerably to the volume of European real estate traded.
The Global Financial crisis brought a proliferation of debt funds like Cerberus and Lone Star buying huge non-performing loan portfolios at deep discounts and benefiting from extensive “workout” programmes.
The past 12 months or so has seen the emergence of “core plus” capital from many of the original “opportunistic” funds including Blackstone, Ares and Oaktree to name a few.
And finally, there is now an interesting weight of US “net income” capital entering Europe.
Thus far, the new POTUS has not dampened the intercontinental investment activities of what is by far the most important group of Pan-European investors.
Market influences and common 'business' sense would suggest that Brexit negotiations will come to a balanced settlement which satisfies all sides.
Twelve months, ago London appeared over-valued compared with competing European cities, but currency fluctuations have redressed this balance and the UK now appears better value than prime German cities.
The Netherlands remains attractive given its yield arbitrage over its French and German counterparts. Poland remains the most sought after in the CEE Region with strong GDP growth.
But if we have to nail our colors to the mast and pick three sets in particular to focus upon:
• Smaller capitals and second tier cities are becoming stronger, with Dublin, Brussels, Prague and Amsterdam all attracting interest, with major markets becoming fully priced.
• Germany is widely regarded as a safe haven in Europe, with investors favoring all three of its office, retail and logistics sectors; strong consideration should be given to the more “specialist” sectors to include student housing, automotive and hospitality.
Residential capital markets continue to appeal across the continent with an expectation of further yield compression ahead.
• Rental growth prospects in particular are strong in Dublin, Berlin, Madrid and Stockholm, buoyed by improving occupier demand, and there is growing evidence that Frankfurt, Dublin and Amsterdam (in that order) will benefit from Brexit fallout.
European real estate has been on a rollercoaster for the last 12 months, buffeted at times through individual country crises and more general uncertainty over the European Union.
The British parliamentary vote in favor of invoking Article 50 gives clearer direction, and as the European property world and its American guests head to Cannes we see a myriad of opportunities opening up.
Andrew Sim is head of European investment with Knight Frank. The views expressed here are the author's own.
LONDON—We are approaching the time when the global property market descends on Cannes in the south of France for MIPIM, the real estate jamboree for 20,000-plus owners, developers, funders, bankers and advisers which sets the tone in Europe for the rest of the year.
MIPIM is also a time when US investors arrive in Europe in force, using the conference, exhibition and networking to gauge the temperature of our continent. So what will the mood be like on the Riviera on March 13?
First, let's get the last 12 months in Europe in context. MIPIM in 2016 had a doom-laden feel, with the traditional sun and 70-plus degree weather replaced by leaden skies, heavy rain and a roaring trade among the umbrella hawkers along the Croisette.
The temperature among the delegates was pretty cool, too with nerves beginning to jangle over Britain's Referendum on the European Union, even if the prospect of President Trump's election was still far-fetched among attendees.
Fast forwards 12 months and the mood across Europe is more upbeat. The Bank of England has just revised its growth forecast for the UK upwards for the second time in recent months, to 2% for 2017, and Eurozone growth is also on an upward curve.
In Knight Frank's latest “European Outlook,” we see opportunities for 2017, first in terms of:
• Politics. With elections due in France, The
• Currency movements. The weaker pound is proving a boon to the UK economy, and has seen an increase in interest in London particularly from Asian investors.
• Specialist sectors. The healthcare, automotive and build-to-rent sectors are getting stronger and stronger in the UK, although student accommodation may pause for breath until the regime for overseas students post-Brexit becomes clearer. On the continent, such sectors are equally attractive but still more fragmented wherein lies the opportunity.
In terms of who is buying in Europe as we head to MIPIM, the combined firepower of American investors remains dominant. Whilst investment volumes are down 21% on the previous year, the total remains significant.
The original US pioneers—like
The advent and introduction of the euro brought a proliferation of US Pan-European vehicles such as Apollo, Blackstone, Tristan and so on, adding considerably to the volume of European real estate traded.
The Global Financial crisis brought a proliferation of debt funds like Cerberus and Lone Star buying huge non-performing loan portfolios at deep discounts and benefiting from extensive “workout” programmes.
The past 12 months or so has seen the emergence of “core plus” capital from many of the original “opportunistic” funds including Blackstone, Ares and Oaktree to name a few.
And finally, there is now an interesting weight of US “net income” capital entering Europe.
Thus far, the new POTUS has not dampened the intercontinental investment activities of what is by far the most important group of Pan-European investors.
Market influences and common 'business' sense would suggest that Brexit negotiations will come to a balanced settlement which satisfies all sides.
Twelve months, ago London appeared over-valued compared with competing European cities, but currency fluctuations have redressed this balance and the UK now appears better value than prime German cities.
The
But if we have to nail our colors to the mast and pick three sets in particular to focus upon:
• Smaller capitals and second tier cities are becoming stronger, with Dublin, Brussels, Prague and Amsterdam all attracting interest, with major markets becoming fully priced.
• Germany is widely regarded as a safe haven in Europe, with investors favoring all three of its office, retail and logistics sectors; strong consideration should be given to the more “specialist” sectors to include student housing, automotive and hospitality.
Residential capital markets continue to appeal across the continent with an expectation of further yield compression ahead.
• Rental growth prospects in particular are strong in Dublin, Berlin, Madrid and Stockholm, buoyed by improving occupier demand, and there is growing evidence that Frankfurt, Dublin and Amsterdam (in that order) will benefit from Brexit fallout.
European real estate has been on a rollercoaster for the last 12 months, buffeted at times through individual country crises and more general uncertainty over the European Union.
The British parliamentary vote in favor of invoking Article 50 gives clearer direction, and as the European property world and its American guests head to Cannes we see a myriad of opportunities opening up.
Andrew Sim is head of European investment with Knight Frank. The views expressed here are the author's own.
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