Steve Van of Prism Hotels & Resorts

DALLAS—This past August, Steve Van, president and CEO of Prism Hotels, told GlobeSt.com that the reality behind the generally dour outlook for the lodging sector was far more nuanced than many industry observers would have us believe. Fast forward to March of this year, and Van sees the industry getting through the current uncertainty, even if the catalyst for much of that uncertainty—namely, the impact of the Trump presidency—could wind up being either helpful or harmful to the industry. Here, Van shares his current outlook with GlobeSt.com.

GlobeSt.com: Where is the hotel Industry headed in 2017?

Steve Van: Easy question. All you need to do is imagine yourself standing on Fifth Avenue after Christmas, looking at Trump Tower. Will you see a golden statue of Donald the Dragon Slayer or a Black Swan? Are you uncertain? I don't know either, but I do know that the most important factor in our industry is the health of American business—GDP growth. Uncertainty is the enemy of business, and we are swimming in a stew of it these days.

We will have continued growth, building on the past eight solid years, if the Dragon Slayer gets his way with tax cuts, deregulation, infrastructure money and healthcare cost reduction. However, if the Black Swan appears in the form of an export-crippling trade war, lower productivity and innovation because immigrant IT and high tech workers can't work here, or a real war with Iran or North Korea, then I fear our industry will suffer.

My personal prediction is that the hotel industry will make it through the year with zero demand growth and a very modest rate growth. Some overbuilt and over-building markets like New York and Houston will suffer, and as interest rates rise overall, hotel values will decline a little.

GlobeSt.com: What is the most important thing that hotel owners and investors need to consider this year?

Van: Stay liquid, and be conservative! Well-capitalized hotels with low leverage almost always survive downturns and recover their value, and I have witnessed this since 1975. Given the uncertainty we face today, I recommend imitating what the big boy billionaires in the hedge-fund world are doing. One of the smartest of the lot, Seth Klarman, founder of Baupost Group, is holding a cool $10 billion—a third of his fund—in cash.

GlobeSt.com: What trends do you see shaping the industry during the next five years?

Van: If one really wants the best answer available to this critical question, immediately stop reading what I have to say and go read Thomas Friedman's brilliant book on our economic future: Thank You for Being Late: An Optimist's Guide to Thriving in the Age of Accelerations.

GlobeSt.com: What are plans for Prism this year?

Van: We at Prism have an obsessive addiction to what we call MSO, or Most Satisfied Owner. That very positive addiction has transformed our company into managing incredible properties, from the largest Hyatt Regency franchise—the 581-room Hyatt Regency Los Angeles International Airport— to the beautiful 428-room Hilton Tucson El Conquistador Resort and numerous other major full-service hotels, all with exceptionally Satisfied Owners.

Like any addict, we want more and have quite a few similar deals signed already for 2017. We are having so much fun transforming the hospitality industry and we are thrilled to continue pursuing our passion with new projects this year!

Steve Van of Prism Hotels & Resorts

DALLAS—This past August, Steve Van, president and CEO of Prism Hotels, told GlobeSt.com that the reality behind the generally dour outlook for the lodging sector was far more nuanced than many industry observers would have us believe. Fast forward to March of this year, and Van sees the industry getting through the current uncertainty, even if the catalyst for much of that uncertainty—namely, the impact of the Trump presidency—could wind up being either helpful or harmful to the industry. Here, Van shares his current outlook with GlobeSt.com.

GlobeSt.com: Where is the hotel Industry headed in 2017?

Steve Van: Easy question. All you need to do is imagine yourself standing on Fifth Avenue after Christmas, looking at Trump Tower. Will you see a golden statue of Donald the Dragon Slayer or a Black Swan? Are you uncertain? I don't know either, but I do know that the most important factor in our industry is the health of American business—GDP growth. Uncertainty is the enemy of business, and we are swimming in a stew of it these days.

We will have continued growth, building on the past eight solid years, if the Dragon Slayer gets his way with tax cuts, deregulation, infrastructure money and healthcare cost reduction. However, if the Black Swan appears in the form of an export-crippling trade war, lower productivity and innovation because immigrant IT and high tech workers can't work here, or a real war with Iran or North Korea, then I fear our industry will suffer.

My personal prediction is that the hotel industry will make it through the year with zero demand growth and a very modest rate growth. Some overbuilt and over-building markets like New York and Houston will suffer, and as interest rates rise overall, hotel values will decline a little.

GlobeSt.com: What is the most important thing that hotel owners and investors need to consider this year?

Van: Stay liquid, and be conservative! Well-capitalized hotels with low leverage almost always survive downturns and recover their value, and I have witnessed this since 1975. Given the uncertainty we face today, I recommend imitating what the big boy billionaires in the hedge-fund world are doing. One of the smartest of the lot, Seth Klarman, founder of Baupost Group, is holding a cool $10 billion—a third of his fund—in cash.

GlobeSt.com: What trends do you see shaping the industry during the next five years?

Van: If one really wants the best answer available to this critical question, immediately stop reading what I have to say and go read Thomas Friedman's brilliant book on our economic future: Thank You for Being Late: An Optimist's Guide to Thriving in the Age of Accelerations.

GlobeSt.com: What are plans for Prism this year?

Van: We at Prism have an obsessive addiction to what we call MSO, or Most Satisfied Owner. That very positive addiction has transformed our company into managing incredible properties, from the largest Hyatt Regency franchise—the 581-room Hyatt Regency Los Angeles International Airport— to the beautiful 428-room Hilton Tucson El Conquistador Resort and numerous other major full-service hotels, all with exceptionally Satisfied Owners.

Like any addict, we want more and have quite a few similar deals signed already for 2017. We are having so much fun transforming the hospitality industry and we are thrilled to continue pursuing our passion with new projects this year!

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Paul Bubny

Paul Bubny is managing editor of Real Estate Forum and GlobeSt.com. He has been reporting on business since 1988 and on commercial real estate since 2007. He is based at ALM Real Estate Media Group's offices in New York City.

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