So this is only some of the main potential black swans we are faced with. Complicating everything, is the massive effort by the Democrats and the mainstream media to undermine everything Trump is trying to do, and we have the potential of more difficulty in dealing with all of this than we should and need. The Russians must be hysterical watching what is happening here and how they could never have hoped to achieve the problems and difficulties for the new administration as the Democrats are creating with their vow to resist and stop the smooth functioning of the government.

So where does all this leave CRE. Hard to say. The US will remain the island of safety in the world, and if the Republicans do pass replacement of Obamacare, tax reform, defense increases, and infrastructure investment, along with massive deregulation, then the US economy becomes much stronger and CRE does well. However, if currency markets do become very volatile, and the world economy becomes very uncertain, and if the EU begins to destabilize, then lenders and investors are likely to become much more uncertain and cautious. Now is probably a good time to set up new deals assuming for a very good US economy, but you need to wait until summer before committing to too much, or taking big risks, just in case the black swans decide to dump all over everything. Optimism restrained with a degree of caution, is the best approach for the moment, but being ready to race ahead in case the bad things do not happen, and it is only a strong US recovery that we experience.

The views expressed here are the author's own.

The stock market is at a record high, animal spirits have been released and optimism has returned, despite all the nonsense being put out by the mainstream media and Democrats. Obamacare will be replaced and taxes will be reformed. Infrastructure will be financed and rebuilt by many public private partnerships and partly funded by the tax on repatriated capital coming home. Deregulation is well underway and will accelerate as the cabinet is finally mostly in place and able to accomplish this critical task.

However, the black swans continue to circle and risks around the world are extreme. Starting with North Korea, which seems hell-bent on developing nukes and missiles to gain a negotiating edge to get whatever it seeks from Trump and the Chinese. This may be the most dangerous since Kim is insane and has killed anyone around him who holds any other view than his. Maybe the Chinese will set up a coup, but we cannot assume that is likely. With the South Korean election in 60 days, the situation is even more unstable. It is hard to guess what China might do given the other major issues it has with the US. They are not rushing to help yet. However, maybe China will realize that a military confrontation in North Korea is possible if the US attacks and that will totally upset everything China is doing to position itself in Asia and for economic growth. This all could get very messy.

If Le Pen wins, which I believe is very possible now that her only competition is Macron, and the rest of the field is in disarray, then the currency markets becomes very volatile as there is vast uncertainty when and if she triggers Frexit. All this as Brexit gets going and that looks like it will start as a nasty confrontation over exit fees, and deteriorate from there. It seems pretty clear it is going to be a hard Brexit, and if Le Pen wins, the EU will be in disarray over these negotiations with the UK, making any agreement hard to achieve. There is also now a chance that Merkel will lose. A couple more terror incidents and sexual assaults and she could lose. That will further destabilize Europe, since she and Germany have been the leaders for the past decade. Add in the coming battle over Italy bailing out its banks in contravention of EU rules, and Poland and Hungry having very different views than the rest of Europe, and complete chaos could reign. If this all were to happen, and the chances are at least 50-50, then capital will flee Europe and come here, but world financial markets will be very unstable for a long time. Just as all this plays out maybe the US Congress passes a border tax and the EU tries to retaliate with taxes or tariffs on US goods. Then, of course, there is always Putin messing on the borders. Even if only part of this becomes reality, it will be messy.

There is a real potential for serious problems in Syria as Turkey insists on sidelining the Kurds in the battle for Raqqa and the US and everyone else backs the Kurds. If Erdogan completes his seizure of total dictatorial power, there is no telling what he may do to retaliate. Syria, thanks to Obama, has become a total chaotic mess and it is likely to only get worse. With the Democrats and the press falsely claiming Russia is conspiring with Trump and has him in their pocket, it seriously undermines Trump's plan to try to find a way to work with Putin in a more constructive way. This effort by the Democrats and the press to undermine Trump with false news is very dangerous for the world geopolitics.

So this is only some of the main potential black swans we are faced with. Complicating everything, is the massive effort by the Democrats and the mainstream media to undermine everything Trump is trying to do, and we have the potential of more difficulty in dealing with all of this than we should and need. The Russians must be hysterical watching what is happening here and how they could never have hoped to achieve the problems and difficulties for the new administration as the Democrats are creating with their vow to resist and stop the smooth functioning of the government.

So where does all this leave CRE. Hard to say. The US will remain the island of safety in the world, and if the Republicans do pass replacement of Obamacare, tax reform, defense increases, and infrastructure investment, along with massive deregulation, then the US economy becomes much stronger and CRE does well. However, if currency markets do become very volatile, and the world economy becomes very uncertain, and if the EU begins to destabilize, then lenders and investors are likely to become much more uncertain and cautious. Now is probably a good time to set up new deals assuming for a very good US economy, but you need to wait until summer before committing to too much, or taking big risks, just in case the black swans decide to dump all over everything. Optimism restrained with a degree of caution, is the best approach for the moment, but being ready to race ahead in case the bad things do not happen, and it is only a strong US recovery that we experience.

The views expressed here are the author's own.