Ten-X's Peter Muoio

IRVINE, CA—Commercial property valuations grew by 1% during April, the strongest monthly increase since the presidential election last November, Ten-X said Thursday. A slide in interest rates during the lead-up to another national election—France's—was partly responsible for the pricing gains.

“April produced promising returns across much of commercial real estate, with an unlikely leader—the hotel sector—setting the pace,” says Peter Muoio, chief economist at Ten-X. Values in lodging properties rose an average of 1.3% during April, breaking an 11-month streak of negative annual growth and putting them 1% above their levels a year ago. “The hotel sector has been stuck in a prolonged slump due to significant incoming supply, changes in consumer behavior and declines in international tourism.”

Hotel's strength was largely regional, though, with the Southeast and Southwest seeing gains while the Northeast continuing its decline. Weighing heavily on the Northeast's performance was the nation's largest hotel market, New York City, currently seeing the pinch of both a ramp-up in new supply and a downturn in travel from overseas due to the Trump administration's restrictions.
Less surprising was the strength of the apartment sector, which also posted a 1.3% increase in values from the previous month. Overall pricing in multifamily is now up 15.1% year-over-year, and Ten-X notes that notwithstanding tight cap rate spreads, investors continue to be bullish on the sector.

The Ten-X Office Nowcast for April was also a bright spot, with proicioes in the sector up by 1.1% for the month, breaking a four-month stretch of flat or marginal growth. Office pricing is now up 22.4% on a Y-O-Y basis, the strongest annual gain since 2014.

Conversely, retail and industrial each came in with monthly growth below 1%, seeing pricing gains of 0.6% and 0.7%, respectively. Both have seen moderate increases over the past year, as the Ten-X Industrial Nowcast is up 5.4% Y-O-Y and the Retail Nowcast up just 4.8%. The recent wave of retail bankruptcies and store closures has put a damper on pricing, currently experiencing its slowest growth since late '14.

Across the commercial real estate sector, Muoio says, “While the industry saw its biggest gains since November, investors are staying patient as they await more clarity on the country's economic and policy outlook under the new federal administration.”

Ten-X's Peter Muoio

IRVINE, CA—Commercial property valuations grew by 1% during April, the strongest monthly increase since the presidential election last November, Ten-X said Thursday. A slide in interest rates during the lead-up to another national election—France's—was partly responsible for the pricing gains.

“April produced promising returns across much of commercial real estate, with an unlikely leader—the hotel sector—setting the pace,” says Peter Muoio, chief economist at Ten-X. Values in lodging properties rose an average of 1.3% during April, breaking an 11-month streak of negative annual growth and putting them 1% above their levels a year ago. “The hotel sector has been stuck in a prolonged slump due to significant incoming supply, changes in consumer behavior and declines in international tourism.”

Hotel's strength was largely regional, though, with the Southeast and Southwest seeing gains while the Northeast continuing its decline. Weighing heavily on the Northeast's performance was the nation's largest hotel market, New York City, currently seeing the pinch of both a ramp-up in new supply and a downturn in travel from overseas due to the Trump administration's restrictions.
Less surprising was the strength of the apartment sector, which also posted a 1.3% increase in values from the previous month. Overall pricing in multifamily is now up 15.1% year-over-year, and Ten-X notes that notwithstanding tight cap rate spreads, investors continue to be bullish on the sector.

The Ten-X Office Nowcast for April was also a bright spot, with proicioes in the sector up by 1.1% for the month, breaking a four-month stretch of flat or marginal growth. Office pricing is now up 22.4% on a Y-O-Y basis, the strongest annual gain since 2014.

Conversely, retail and industrial each came in with monthly growth below 1%, seeing pricing gains of 0.6% and 0.7%, respectively. Both have seen moderate increases over the past year, as the Ten-X Industrial Nowcast is up 5.4% Y-O-Y and the Retail Nowcast up just 4.8%. The recent wave of retail bankruptcies and store closures has put a damper on pricing, currently experiencing its slowest growth since late '14.

Across the commercial real estate sector, Muoio says, “While the industry saw its biggest gains since November, investors are staying patient as they await more clarity on the country's economic and policy outlook under the new federal administration.”

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Paul Bubny

Paul Bubny is managing editor of Real Estate Forum and GlobeSt.com. He has been reporting on business since 1988 and on commercial real estate since 2007. He is based at ALM Real Estate Media Group's offices in New York City.

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