There are real black swans circling. Europe may look better, but the underlying structural issues remain. Macron won, but it is very doubtful he can get his reforms through Parliament. It could be a replay of Italy where a young prime minister tried to push through reforms but got nowhere. People and Socialists just do not want to give up the goodies, ever, once they have them. Just like here with repeal of Obamacare which is a disaster for patients whop can no longer afford premiums or deductibles, or there is no longer any insurer.

The truth is, here and in Europe, Congress or the Parliaments are unwilling to do the hard things so everyone continues to wallow in political swamps. Just take Obamacare. The Republicans had 7 years to figure it out and get the Senate and House behind one bill. But they blew it, and now the Senate says they are starting from scratch. It is stuff you can't make up.

So do your best to sort through the blur of garbage. Be an independent thinker and analyst. Go with your gut if you have been around for at least 15 years- it is probably right. I lost track of the number of friends who said they hired a supposedly smart MBA only to find they did not really have any street smarts and made bade recommendations. Some of the most successful developers I know never graduated high school but they know every number, every risk, and have street smarts. And when they start to think they can do things outside their expertise even they fail.

Just keep your head down, and don't let the swap swallow you up.

The views expressed are the author's own.

When I was a kid Walter Cronkite and Chet Huntley reported the news, objectively and without emotion. These days everyone who is supposed to be a journalist is really a member of one party or the other. The need report rumor or fake news supersedes getting to truth. The Democrats are making Putin look good by doing far more damage to the US government than Putin could have ever imagined he could do. They rage, make absurd statements and claims, and try to spin everything like life and death and the end of the republic. Their delay and resist tactics are unseemly, and destructive to the rest of us. The NY Times, Washington Post and CNN create fake news, and the other press repeat it with no verification. Case in point: Comey asked for more resources, Rosenstein threatened to quit, and on and on. All turned out to be 100% false. CNN runs “panels“ to opine on the latest version of truth by CNN, which is rarely true.

Trump seems to be incapable of keeping his foot out of his mouth-latest example mentioning tapes just as it was clear firing of Comey was well justified, and many Democrats had been asking for that until Trump actually did it. So now CNN came up with a conspiracy theory complete with flow charts and absurd convoluted spin, that claimed firing Comey, Bharara, and Yates as some cover up, even though they are all totally unrelated, and all were well justified. There are even suggestions by NBC that Trump does not really want to be president, and Comey is the end of the Republicans getting any legislation passed. They have all lost their minds. It is like they are on LSD, or some other hallucinogenic. Whether the NY Times, Facebook, CNN or one of the others, fake news abounds and there is no system of verification for anything.

It is hard to know if there is any real truth on news programs or print anymore. I used to grant interviews, but stopped several years ago because even when the reporter taped the interview, it was reported inaccurately 100% of the time. And that was generally for non-political industry trade papers, and not national news. So imagine what reporters write in the current super spin atmosphere where truth and accuracy do not matter.

So what should we all do so that we can make rational, informed business decisions, based on at least some facts. First, ignore the national news shows, on cable or networks. Do not read the NY Times, Washington Post or local papers from San Francisco or Seattle or NYC. Rely instead on trying to get a compendium of news from various sources and then try to determine objectively what seems to make most sense to you. Gather independent industry data, although that is also often tainted. For example, in the hotel industry the “pundits” rarely report anything negative because when I was a regular speaker I was told by a conference sponsor they were no longer having me speak because only optimists were allowed to speak. Reality was not the operative goal. STR produces only RevPAR numbers nationally for publication because if they produced true NOI by market it would not be a pretty picture in some places. The appraisers always want it to be positive to justify the phony appraised values they charge so much for. It is all a game that you have to sort through by experience, and speaking to real players on the ground.

There are real black swans circling. Europe may look better, but the underlying structural issues remain. Macron won, but it is very doubtful he can get his reforms through Parliament. It could be a replay of Italy where a young prime minister tried to push through reforms but got nowhere. People and Socialists just do not want to give up the goodies, ever, once they have them. Just like here with repeal of Obamacare which is a disaster for patients whop can no longer afford premiums or deductibles, or there is no longer any insurer.

The truth is, here and in Europe, Congress or the Parliaments are unwilling to do the hard things so everyone continues to wallow in political swamps. Just take Obamacare. The Republicans had 7 years to figure it out and get the Senate and House behind one bill. But they blew it, and now the Senate says they are starting from scratch. It is stuff you can't make up.

So do your best to sort through the blur of garbage. Be an independent thinker and analyst. Go with your gut if you have been around for at least 15 years- it is probably right. I lost track of the number of friends who said they hired a supposedly smart MBA only to find they did not really have any street smarts and made bade recommendations. Some of the most successful developers I know never graduated high school but they know every number, every risk, and have street smarts. And when they start to think they can do things outside their expertise even they fail.

Just keep your head down, and don't let the swap swallow you up.

The views expressed are the author's own.