All of them, though, fall under the off-price heading, reflecting the larger trend that CBRE sees toward off-price and discount/value in big-box store openings. Others planning to open multiple locations this year and next include TJX with its TJ Maxx and HomeGoods brands, Ross Stores and, in its US debut, German discount grocer Lidl.

The expansion among value brands is driven in part by “a fundamental shift in consumer demand toward value,” according to CBRE's report. “The trend toward discount was largely born from the 2008 recession, and many believed it would be a temporary turn until household finances rebounded.”

Instead, the report says, “the trend has actually grown in force alongside recovery in consumer confidence, the labor markets and household financial health. This suggests that even as consumers become wealthier, the search for the lowest price will continue.”

Another advantage enjoyed by big-box discounters is “relative insulation from e-commerce growth when compared to more mid-range retail brands,” the report says. Although it isn't widely reported in quarterly filings from these retailers, “the share of e-commerce sales by TJ Maxx, Ross and Dollar General is estimated at less than 5% of total sales. Stein Mart's 2016 e-commerce share was a reported 1.9% of total sales—far below the 8.2% average e-commerce share of all national retail sales.”

Partly due to the expansion plans of Dollar General and others, CBRE expects the average availability rate for US power centers to register 6.8% this year. That's about 220 basis points less than the sector's 10-year high for availability of 9% in 2009.

Dollar General

LOS ANGELES—It doesn't have quite the same blaring headline appeal as the downfall of a once-mighty big-box chain declaring bankruptcy and shuttering all of its stores, but there's a lower-key story unfolding in this sector. CBRE Group reported Thursday that big-box retailers are gearing up for hundreds of new locations this year—just not in the same categories or reaching the same price points as the ones that have closed.

Acknowledging that “big-box bankruptcies do, in fact, present a legitimate shadow-supply risk,” the CBRE report—the first in a “Beyond the Headlines” series about the retail real estate market—cites 13 brick-and-mortar retailers with plans to absorb a big chunk of that supply. To wit, these retailers are projecting a total of 1,700 openings this year alone, totaling more than 40 million square feet.

“Granted, we will see an increase in vacancy in the big-box sector due to recent bankruptcies and closures,” says Melina Cordero, CBRE head of retail research in the Americas. “But the hoopla about those collapses nearly ignores that many retailers in the big-box category continue to open additional stores. Some—perhaps a lot—of the big-box space now being vacated won't be empty for long.”

Leading the way with projected new openings is Dollar General, which plans 1,000 new locations across the US. About 150 to 160 of those will be smaller-format, averaging about 6,000 square feet, compared to the average Dollar General footprint of 9,100 square feet.

All of them, though, fall under the off-price heading, reflecting the larger trend that CBRE sees toward off-price and discount/value in big-box store openings. Others planning to open multiple locations this year and next include TJX with its TJ Maxx and HomeGoods brands, Ross Stores and, in its US debut, German discount grocer Lidl.

The expansion among value brands is driven in part by “a fundamental shift in consumer demand toward value,” according to CBRE's report. “The trend toward discount was largely born from the 2008 recession, and many believed it would be a temporary turn until household finances rebounded.”

Instead, the report says, “the trend has actually grown in force alongside recovery in consumer confidence, the labor markets and household financial health. This suggests that even as consumers become wealthier, the search for the lowest price will continue.”

Another advantage enjoyed by big-box discounters is “relative insulation from e-commerce growth when compared to more mid-range retail brands,” the report says. Although it isn't widely reported in quarterly filings from these retailers, “the share of e-commerce sales by TJ Maxx, Ross and Dollar General is estimated at less than 5% of total sales. Stein Mart's 2016 e-commerce share was a reported 1.9% of total sales—far below the 8.2% average e-commerce share of all national retail sales.”

Partly due to the expansion plans of Dollar General and others, CBRE expects the average availability rate for US power centers to register 6.8% this year. That's about 220 basis points less than the sector's 10-year high for availability of 9% in 2009.