The updated estimates from PwC are based on a quarterly econometric analysis of the US lodging sector. It utilizes an updated forecast released by IHS Markit and historical statistics supplied by STR and other data providers.

Based on IHS Markit's economic forecast, PwC anticipates the Trump administration will attempt a more modest agenda in 2017 than initially suggested. This may impact previous expectations for significant tax and regulatory reform this year.

“Reinforced by rising employment, higher real income, and increased household net worth, consumer confidence and sentiment remain elevated,” according to PwC. ”For the remainder of 2017, US lodging performance is projected to temper, as peaking supply growth is expected to place increased pressure on pricing power.”

In related news, Lodging Econometrics reported earlier this month that as of the end of Q1, the United States Construction Pipeline currently stands at 5,032 projects representing 602,034 rooms, up 13% by projects Y-O-Y. There are 1,511 projects representing 197,450 rooms under construction, up by 155 projects Y-O-Y or 11%.

At 2,414 projects and 272,487 rooms, the number of hotel projects scheduled to start in the next 12 months was up by 367 projects, a Y-O-Y increase of 18%. Projects in early planning, at 1,107 projects totaling 132,097 rooms, were up by 39 projects or 4% from the year-ago period.

Portsmouth, NH-based LE notes that Q1 represented the 21st consecutive quarter of growth, yet adds that the construction pipeline is still a distant 851 projects/183,513 rooms away from the levels reached in Q2 2008, when it held 5,883 projects/785,547 rooms. The moderation in pipeline growth can be attributed to the tightening of loan availability, the recent rise of interest rates with the expectation of more increases on the horizon and a slowing economy near full employment, says LE.

NEW YORK CITY—Underscoring a recent turnaround in its fortunes, the lodging sector saw demand increase at the strongest quarterly rate in two years during the first three months of 2017 even amid weak GDP growth, PwC US said Monday. This in turn led to modest growth in both occupancy and ADR during the first quarter, while overall RevPAR increased 3.4%.

“Despite the ongoing post-election partisanship, the US economy currently appears to be on firmer footing, compared to the same period last year,” says Scott D. Berman, principal and US industry leader, hospitality & leisure at PwC. “Events such as the presidential inauguration and women's march in January boosted demand for hotel rooms in the greater Washington, DC market.

“This, coupled with other anomalies, such as timing of Easter and Passover, contributed to a good start in 2017,” Berman continues. “The industry needs to keep its eye on the prize and make sure this momentum can be sustained” for the balanced of the year.

PwC says a shift in the supply-demand balance in 2018 is anticipated to result in the first annual decline in occupancy since 2009, although a minor decline at that. ADR growth of 2.2% is expected to drive a year-over-year increase in RevPAR of 2.0%, the slowest growth rate in nine years.

The updated estimates from PwC are based on a quarterly econometric analysis of the US lodging sector. It utilizes an updated forecast released by IHS Markit and historical statistics supplied by STR and other data providers.

Based on IHS Markit's economic forecast, PwC anticipates the Trump administration will attempt a more modest agenda in 2017 than initially suggested. This may impact previous expectations for significant tax and regulatory reform this year.

“Reinforced by rising employment, higher real income, and increased household net worth, consumer confidence and sentiment remain elevated,” according to PwC. ”For the remainder of 2017, US lodging performance is projected to temper, as peaking supply growth is expected to place increased pressure on pricing power.”

In related news, Lodging Econometrics reported earlier this month that as of the end of Q1, the United States Construction Pipeline currently stands at 5,032 projects representing 602,034 rooms, up 13% by projects Y-O-Y. There are 1,511 projects representing 197,450 rooms under construction, up by 155 projects Y-O-Y or 11%.

At 2,414 projects and 272,487 rooms, the number of hotel projects scheduled to start in the next 12 months was up by 367 projects, a Y-O-Y increase of 18%. Projects in early planning, at 1,107 projects totaling 132,097 rooms, were up by 39 projects or 4% from the year-ago period.

Portsmouth, NH-based LE notes that Q1 represented the 21st consecutive quarter of growth, yet adds that the construction pipeline is still a distant 851 projects/183,513 rooms away from the levels reached in Q2 2008, when it held 5,883 projects/785,547 rooms. The moderation in pipeline growth can be attributed to the tightening of loan availability, the recent rise of interest rates with the expectation of more increases on the horizon and a slowing economy near full employment, says LE.